经典重温 | 美元：“巴别塔”的倒塌？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weakening of the US dollar since the implementation of Trump's tariffs on April 2, while the Chinese yuan remains under pressure. It analyzes the reasons behind the dollar's decline and the potential future trends for both the dollar and yuan [1]. Group 1: Recent Weakness of the US Dollar - Since January 10, the US dollar has been continuously weakening, with the dollar index dropping to 99.4 by April 17, a decline of 9.3%. The dollar's performance has shown a clear divergence against developed and emerging market currencies, with declines of 7.6% and 1.4% respectively [2][7]. - Prior to April 7, the primary reason for the dollar's weakness was the rising expectations of a US recession, as indicated by a drop in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index from 14.5 to -19.5. This led to an increase in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which rose from 1.2 to 4.2 times by April 4, causing a significant drop of 62 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [2][17]. - After April 7, despite a rebound in Treasury yields, the dollar continued to weaken, possibly due to overseas capital fleeing the US. This shift in market sentiment transitioned from "flight to safety" to "flight to non-US" assets [2][28]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the US Dollar - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies may continue to exert downward pressure on the US economy, potentially leading to further dollar weakness. The tariffs are expected to increase economic and trade uncertainties, impacting corporate activities and consumer confidence [3][39]. - The GTAP model suggests that the tariffs could reduce US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points. Historical patterns indicate that during recessions, the dollar typically strengthens; however, current concerns about US debt sustainability and Trump's isolationist policies may weaken the dollar's safe-haven status [3][52]. - The outflow of funds from US assets could diminish the likelihood of the dollar's typical "smile curve" behavior during a recession, as capital flows towards non-US assets increase [3][52]. Group 3: Implications for the Chinese Yuan - Despite the weakening dollar, the Chinese yuan has also depreciated, primarily due to the direct impact of tariff policies. Since April 2, while the dollar index fell by 4.1%, the onshore yuan depreciated by 0.4%, reaching a new low since the 2015 reform [4][61]. - Looking ahead, the depreciation pressure on the yuan may ease as external shocks diminish. The ongoing US economic downturn and capital outflows from the US could alleviate external pressures on the yuan [4][92]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tools to counter cyclical behaviors in the market, and the accumulation of approximately $123.9 billion in pending foreign exchange settlements since 2023 may provide a buffer for the yuan's stability [4][77].