经典重温 | 特朗普“大循环”与美元汇率的“重估”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article discusses the structural imbalances in global trade and the concept of the "twin deficits" in the U.S., providing a framework for analyzing potential solutions to these issues [2][8] - It highlights the paradox of Trump's economic policies, which have led to both internal and external imbalances, exacerbating the trade deficit [3][5] - The U.S. current account deficit accounts for 60-70% of the global total, indicating a significant reliance on foreign capital [4][24] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential solutions to the twin deficits: fiscal consolidation, currency depreciation, and adjustments in domestic savings and investment [6][34] - It emphasizes that the U.S. trade deficit is a reflection of domestic savings shortfalls and rising fiscal deficits, with a 1% increase in fiscal deficit correlating to a 0.3-0.5% increase in the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP [5][97] - The historical context of U.S. trade imbalances is provided, noting that the current account deficit has expanded significantly since the 1980s, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis [29][68] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency, which contributes to trade imbalances and the need for the U.S. to maintain a trade deficit to supply dollars globally [41][72] - It mentions that the U.S. trade deficit has not improved despite tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, with the goods trade deficit rising from $790 billion in 2017 to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2023 [37][61] - The article suggests that the structural issues in the U.S. economy, including low savings rates and high consumption, are fundamental causes of the persistent trade deficit [90][97]