BD上半场还未结束！30年投资老将深谈创新药投资，以及当下迎接稳牛的姿势……

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth of the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, which has seen indices rise over 100% this year, and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying companies rather than just focusing on standout products [2][4]. Group 1: Research Perspective - The research approach taken by Chen Jialin focuses on the governance structure of companies, which is crucial for identifying sustainable growth and avoiding potential pitfalls [5][17]. - Chen emphasizes the importance of filtering out noise from public information while still valuing the insights gained from company reports and management discussions [6][7]. - The need to consider the buyer's perspective in the BD (business development) model is highlighted, as issues with large overseas buyers could impact the Chinese innovative drug market [7][60]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector is currently experiencing a phase of structural differentiation, with a shift towards capturing alpha opportunities as the market stabilizes after a period of rapid growth [4][12]. - The article notes that the innovative drug industry is in a long-term growth trajectory, with significant potential for returns, particularly in the context of global market dynamics and China's increasing share in the sector [14][66]. - Chen points out that the current market environment is characterized by high uncertainty, which poses challenges for sustaining excess returns [16][70]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy discussed involves a balanced approach between aggressive and defensive positions, with a focus on minimizing errors rather than chasing opportunities [9][10]. - Chen advocates for a trading strategy that capitalizes on human behavioral biases, allowing for the identification of mispriced opportunities in the market [42][43]. - The importance of understanding the broader geopolitical and economic landscape is emphasized, as these factors can significantly influence market conditions and investment outcomes [16][66]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current phase of the BD model is not yet complete, with ongoing developments in the innovative drug sector expected to yield further opportunities [64][65]. - Chen expresses optimism about the future of Chinese innovative drug companies, citing their competitive advantages in R&D efficiency and market access [68][69]. - The potential risks associated with external factors, such as regulatory changes and market sentiment, are acknowledged, but the overall trend remains positive for the sector [60][63].