经典重温 | 制造通胀：日央行如何逃逸“流动性陷阱”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - Since the late 1990s, Japan's economy has been trapped in a "two-decade deflation," leading the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to become a "laboratory" for cutting-edge monetary policy, with "manufacturing inflation" becoming a priority for its monetary policy [1][7]. Group 1: Evolution of BOJ's Policy Framework - The BOJ's monetary policy framework has evolved through three main stages from 1955 to the present, reflecting changes in economic conditions and financial markets [2][8]. - From 1955 to 1970, the BOJ employed a quantity-based monetary policy framework characterized by strong regulation, including capital controls and fixed exchange rates [2][9]. - The period from 1971 to 1990 saw a transition towards financial liberalization and a shift from quantity-based to price-based frameworks, although quantity remained dominant [15][22]. - Since 1991, the BOJ has engaged in unconventional policy experiments, moving towards a long-term easing cycle, particularly after the asset bubble burst [28][35]. Group 2: Transition from Quantitative Easing to Comprehensive Monetary Easing - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 prompted the BOJ to implement a zero interest rate policy, which was later reversed incorrectly before the internet bubble burst [3][44]. - In March 2001, the BOJ initiated a quantitative easing policy (QEP) with a focus on increasing reserve balances and committing to maintain the policy until core CPI stabilized above 0% [3][81]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the BOJ adopted a comprehensive monetary easing (CME) approach, expanding its asset purchases and adjusting its policy tools to address ongoing economic challenges [3][35]. Group 3: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing - Under Governor Kuroda's leadership from 2013, the BOJ's monetary policy can be divided into three phases, starting with the introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) [4][36]. - The first phase emphasized increasing base money through long-term government bond purchases, while the second phase introduced negative interest rates to combat deflation [4][36]. - The third phase involved Yield Curve Control (YCC), where the BOJ maintained flexibility in its bond purchases while targeting specific yield levels [4][36]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the continued appreciation of the yen have influenced the BOJ's policy decisions and economic outlook [5].