AI时代下，全球及中国半导体产业现状与展望

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is projected to experience significant growth, with sales expected to reach $630.5 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and to exceed $700 billion in 2025, marking an 11.2% growth [5]. Global Semiconductor Market Trends - The semiconductor market has evolved from $200 billion in 2000 to an anticipated $1 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by artificial intelligence (AI) [5]. - AI infrastructure, including servers, data centers, and storage, is expected to grow from $149 billion in 2024 to $340 billion by 2030, representing 34% of the $1 trillion market [5]. - The demand for AI-related semiconductor components, such as GPUs, is projected to increase significantly, with GPU market size expected to grow from $100 billion in 2025 to $326 billion by 2030 [6]. Government Initiatives and Investments - Various governments are investing heavily in semiconductor infrastructure, with the U.S. announcing a $500 billion AI infrastructure plan, Europe investing over €50 billion through the Chip Act, and China continuing its investment through multiple phases of its national semiconductor fund [6][7]. - China's semiconductor industry has rapidly developed, increasing its global wafer fab capacity from 2% in 2000 to an estimated 17% in 2020, with projections to reach 26% by 2026 [7]. Equipment Investment Trends - Global fab equipment investment was around $40 billion to $60 billion in 2020, skyrocketing to $100 billion in 2021, and is expected to maintain this level through 2025, with projections to exceed $120 billion by 2028 due to AI and global chip legislation [8]. - In 2025, AI and high-performance computing (HPC) investments are expected to account for 40% of total equipment investments, increasing to 48% by 2028 [8]. China's Semiconductor Industry Development - China is a major player in the global semiconductor market, holding 46% of the Asia-Pacific market and 24% of the global market [11]. - The sales revenue of China's integrated circuit industry reached ¥1,227.69 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and is projected to exceed ¥1,300 billion in 2024 [11]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for China's wafer fab capacity is expected to be 8.1% from 2024 to 2028, with significant growth in mainstream nodes [12]. Long-term Investment Outlook - China's semiconductor equipment investment is projected to be $38 billion in 2025 and $36 billion in 2026, leading global semiconductor equipment investments [13]. - The total capital expenditure for the semiconductor industry is expected to reach $160 billion in 2025, with major companies like Samsung, TSMC, and Intel accounting for over 57% of global capital expenditure [14].