Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment and the government's reluctance to implement significant stimulus policies, emphasizing a preference for a slow bull market rather than a rapid surge in stock prices [4][10][12]. Group 1 - The recent market expectations were dampened by the announcement that no short-term policy adjustments would be made, contrasting with previous anticipations of major stimulus similar to the "924" policy [4][6][9]. - The current market environment is significantly different from last year, with the index having risen nearly 500 points in two months, indicating a recovery in market sentiment that does not necessitate large policy interventions [7][9][10]. - The government aims to avoid a "crazy bull market" that could lead to a short-lived bull run, preferring instead to maintain a steady upward trend in the market [10][14][15]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) would remain unchanged, indicating a decision not to follow the U.S. in further interest rate cuts [16][17]. - The decision not to lower interest rates is attributed to limited room for reduction, as current deposit rates are around 1% and the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, which could jeopardize banks' profitability [19][20][21]. - Maintaining the LPR is also seen as a strategy to narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S., which has been attracting global capital due to higher interest rates [22][24][26]. Group 3 - The combination of not lowering the LPR and refraining from stimulus policies signals that the government is not in a hurry to release liquidity in the fourth quarter, despite market expectations for such measures [29][30]. - The current high market enthusiasm, even among retail investors, suggests that there is sufficient capital in the market, reducing the need for additional liquidity [33]. - The article anticipates a structural bull market in the A-share market, with certain sectors likely to attract investment while others may see capital outflows [34][35].
重要会议,释放了什么信号?
大胡子说房·2025-09-25 11:24