国泰海通证券研究·2025-09-25 12:07Group 1: Core Views - Mexico's debt market is one of the most mature and well-structured fixed income markets in Latin America, characterized by a diverse range of government bonds and a transparent debt management mechanism [2][3][4] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Debt Environment - Mexico experienced rapid economic expansion in the 1970s due to oil exports and foreign investment, leading to a significant increase in debt, with external debt exceeding 60% [2] - The debt crisis in 1982 was triggered by the oil crisis and rising U.S. interest rates, but reforms in the 21st century have gradually improved debt structure and management [2] - By 2025, the total amount of government bonds is projected to reach 14.5 trillion pesos, with an increasing proportion of fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds, reflecting a strategy for long-term, low-interest financing [2] Group 3: Bond Market Characteristics - The Mexican bond market features a variety of instruments, including short-term treasury bills, floating-rate bonds, and inflation-linked bonds, with total government bonds exceeding 14.5 trillion pesos by September 2025 [4] - Domestic institutional investors dominate the market, while foreign investors play a crucial role in enhancing the market's internationalization and pricing transparency, holding approximately 1.76 trillion pesos of total government bonds [4] Group 4: Risks and Investment Strategies - The Mexican bond market faces multiple risks, including exchange rate, interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks, necessitating a focus on duration management as a core investment strategy [5] - Investors are advised to adjust bond portfolio duration to hedge against interest rate cycles and inflation expectations, while also considering credit spreads and macroeconomic data for optimal selection [5] - Diversifying currency risk and including hard currency-denominated bonds can help buffer against peso volatility, emphasizing a balanced approach to risk and return [5]