经典重温 | 出口会否持续“超预期”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the driving forces behind China's export growth, highlighting that exports to emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia, India, Africa, and the Middle East, are the main growth engines, while exports to non-US developed economies also provide moderate support [2][4][134]. Group 1: Export Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's overall exports showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. Exports to emerging economies contributed 4.7 percentage points to this growth, while non-US developed countries contributed 1.4 percentage points [9][134]. - The export of electronic devices, machinery, and certain consumer goods (toys, mobile phones, jewelry) performed well during this period [12][134]. Group 2: Emerging Economies vs. Non-US Developed Economies - Exports to emerging economies improved mainly in intermediate goods, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 9.6%. Intermediate goods contributed 2.4 percentage points to the overall growth, while consumer goods negatively impacted growth by 3.7 percentage points [21][134]. - Exports to non-US developed economies saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.5 percentage points to 6.7%, primarily driven by consumer goods, which contributed 2.7 percentage points [28][134]. Group 3: Factors Behind Export Growth - The article suggests that approximately 30% of the current export growth may be attributed to "export grabbing," while 70% is due to changes in external demand and market share [4][68][136]. - The increase in US imports, which surged over 30%, is seen as a potential overestimation of "import grabbing," as the growth is largely driven by specific goods rather than a general trend [4][40][136]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for continued export growth remains, as US imports have not yet reached a balance point with demand, indicating room for further increases [76][81]. - Short-term impacts from tariffs on exports to ASEAN countries may lead to a temporary decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to rising investment demand and urbanization in emerging economies [90][94][120].