经典重温 | “十五五”：产业破局与重构 ——“十五五”规划研究系列之三（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing the shift from focusing on the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment [3][5][28]. Group 1: Industrial Structure Adjustment in Five-Year Plans - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The focus of industrial structure adjustment has evolved from the ratio of the three industries to a greater emphasis on technological innovation and R&D investment [5][28]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan has introduced specific targets for R&D expenditure and digital economy core industries, reflecting a shift towards more refined and precise planning [5][28]. Group 2: Trends in Industrial Structure Adjustment - The direction of industrial structure adjustment has transitioned from emphasizing the three industries' ratios to focusing on technological innovation [5][28]. - The importance of the service sector has increased, with a notable shift from finance and real estate to information technology and production services [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to continue supporting technological innovation and address issues such as supply-demand mismatches and "involution" in the manufacturing sector [7][8][22]. Group 3: Key Areas of Focus in the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to prioritize emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, marine economy, and commercial aerospace [7][22]. - There is an anticipated increase in the emphasis on service industry development, particularly in enhancing service consumption and trade [8][26]. - The plan may also focus on improving the quality and efficiency of service industries, aligning with the broader economic development goals [8][49].