经典重温 | “反内卷”，被低估的决心（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to "legally and reasonably govern low-price disorderly competition among enterprises" and to "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity," indicating a clear direction for "anti-involution" policies [2][72]. Group 1: Differences in the Current "Anti-Involution" Movement - The current "anti-involution" movement is characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger coordination, involving local governments, enterprises, and residents [3][73]. - The meeting proposed the "Five Unifications and One Opening" requirement, highlighting the importance of regional governance and the construction of a unified national market [3][73]. - The contradiction between the sharp decline in revenue growth and the rigidity of fixed costs has forced some enterprises to adopt price reduction strategies to pursue "economies of scale" [4][74]. Group 2: Negative Feedback from "Involution" - Low-price competition, a primary method of "involution," often leads to cost compression in the supply chain, with accounts payable turnover rates declining and inventory turnover rates remaining high in the "involution" industries [4][75]. - The internal cost control measures in "involution" industries have resulted in a significant decrease in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% for 2024, and a continued decline in management expenses [4][75]. - The profitability of "involution" industries remains under pressure, with a projected return on assets (ROA) of 2.9% in 2024, a significant drop from 2021 levels [5][76]. Group 3: Solutions to the "Involution" Dilemma - Addressing the "involution" dilemma requires alleviating supply-demand contradictions and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity while reconstructing demand expansion dynamics [6][77]. - Structural transformation can be achieved through policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms to promote supply innovation and upgrade [7][78]. - Accelerating the development of the service industry is crucial to address structural unemployment issues arising from the transformation process, with policies focusing on restoring supply and demand in the service sector [7][78].