经典重温 | “反内卷” ：市场可能误解了什么？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus on "anti-involution" has significantly increased, but there is considerable divergence in understanding "involution"; most viewpoints interpret it through the lens of supply-side reform, which may lead to misunderstandings [1] Misunderstanding of "Involution" and "Anti-Involution" - "Anti-involution" is not equivalent to "anti-surplus"; the causes of demand differ: "surplus" arises from declining demand and passive supply, while "involution" involves proactive supply increases in strong demand areas [2][9] - Price behaviors differ: "surplus" leads to follow-up price reductions due to demand decline, while "involution" results in chaotic price competition despite strong demand [2][9] Supply Issues - Prior to supply-side reform, there was surplus in upstream and state-owned enterprises; the current "anti-involution" is more pronounced in downstream and private enterprises [3][9] - High-energy-consuming industries have completed capacity concentration reforms, and traditional backward capacity is not as significant as before [4][9] Policy Focus - Policies may target industries with excessive supply growth, such as coal and photovoltaic sectors, but the focus is more on downstream adjustments rather than drastic supply reductions [5][9] - Avoiding excessive contraction in upstream supply is crucial to prevent "super-inflation" in prices, which could hinder the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [5][9] Policy Mechanisms - "Anti-involution" should not rely solely on self-discipline talks; successful strategies may include encouraging industry mergers, raising industry standards, and matching supportive policies [6][9] - The experience from Japan, the US, and Germany shows that market-driven reforms and non-price competition can effectively address overcapacity issues [7][9] Structural Adjustments - "Anti-involution" requires addressing the structural imbalance in demand rather than stimulating demand in surplus areas; developing service sector demand can help rebalance the economy [7][9] - The service sector has significant potential to absorb manufacturing job losses and alleviate "involution" challenges [7][9] Equipment and Debt Management - Addressing equipment update issues and overdue payments is essential; the current trend shows new equipment purchases without corresponding old equipment retirements, which can exacerbate "involution" [7][9] - The issue of overdue payments is more pronounced now, especially among private enterprises, necessitating stronger governance measures [7][9]