“易中天”被高估了?
虎嗅APP·2025-09-25 23:55

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-share stocks related to AI computing power, particularly focusing on the "Yi Zhong Tian" stocks, which have seen significant price increases, raising concerns about potential bubbles in the market [2][5][45]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The rapid development of AI is expected to increase the demand for optical modules, which are crucial for data transmission efficiency [6][10]. - The competition in AI computing power is not only about GPU capabilities but also about the efficiency of data transmission, highlighting the importance of optical modules [8][9]. - The market for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to grow significantly, with the overall market size expected to exceed $22 billion by 2030 [15][16]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication have reported substantial revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with Xinyi Sheng's revenue increasing by 282.64% year-on-year [14]. - The sales volume of optical modules for Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng also saw significant increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.96% and 112.53%, respectively [21]. - The introduction of 800G optical modules has positively impacted the financial performance of these companies, with increased revenue and profit margins [13][15]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analysts have adjusted their ratings for several optical module stocks, with Xinyi Sheng and Tianfu Communication downgraded to "reduce" due to high valuations [5][30]. - The expected net profits for 2026 for Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication are projected to grow by 45.98%, 47.17%, and 37.05%, respectively [30]. - The current market environment suggests that a price-to-earnings ratio of 30-40 times is reasonable for these stocks, with potential for higher valuations if market liquidity improves [33][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors already holding these high-performing stocks, a strategy of locking in profits through gradual selling is recommended [38][40]. - New investors are advised to wait for significant price corrections before entering the market, as chasing high prices can lead to losses [42][44]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and company fundamentals before making investment decisions, rather than reacting to market movements [42][43].