经典重温 | “谁”在超额储蓄？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structure of excess savings in China, highlighting that lower savings rates and lower income residents are the primary contributors to this phenomenon [4][5][7]. Group 1: Structure of Excess Savings - Observations of excess savings should include all forms of savings, not just bank deposits, as total savings have increased by 52 trillion yuan over the past four years, exceeding historical trends by 11.1 trillion yuan [5][15]. - Regions with lower savings rates, such as Henan (+16.9 percentage points to 21.9%) and Sichuan (+22.6 percentage points to 14%), have seen significant increases in savings rates, while high savings rate areas like Beijing (29%) have seen limited growth [5][16]. - Areas with lower income levels, such as Shaanxi (34.9%), Shanxi (26.1%), and Liaoning (26.1%), exhibit higher savings rates, contrasting with high-income regions like Shanghai (16%) and Jiangsu (9.5%) [18][24]. Group 2: Formation of Excess Savings - The increase in excess savings is not primarily due to typical precautionary savings behavior; rather, it is linked to reduced housing expenditures and a temporary easing of early loan repayments [7][35]. - The annualized consumption of housing expenditures has decreased from 8 trillion yuan to 3.3 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to excess savings [35]. - The relationship between aging population pressures and excess savings is not straightforward, as both high and low elderly dependency ratios can coexist with high savings rates [37]. Group 3: Release Pathways of Excess Savings - Unlike the U.S. and EU, where excess savings are primarily directed towards consumption, China's excess savings are likely to flow into real estate rather than consumer spending due to deferred housing demand [10][43]. - The stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for the release of excess savings, necessitating policies that address both supply and demand sides [51][54]. - The "guarantee delivery" policy is highlighted as a potential key measure to stimulate investment, promote sales, stabilize housing prices, and release excess savings [54].