静水流深的有色β，终于等来全球Risk-On

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the non-ferrous metals sector has been quietly gaining momentum prior to the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have now catalyzed a significant rally in commodity prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and gold [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) has shown a remarkable increase of 59.6% since its low on April 7, 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the sector even before the interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has triggered a "risk-on" sentiment in global markets, leading to a synchronized jump in prices of copper, aluminum, and gold [1][5]. Group 2: Fundamental Drivers - Three key factors are driving the non-ferrous metals sector: macroeconomic tailwinds, supply-demand gaps, and earnings realization [7]. - The global easing cycle has begun, with historical data showing that gold prices typically rise by an average of 10.43% within six months following the first rate cut, with the highest recorded increase being 40.85% [8]. - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are expected to support demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum through increased infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The copper smelting industry has seen a decline in processing fees, forcing production cuts, while demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy continues to rise [10][12]. - The aluminum sector is nearing its production capacity ceiling, with minimal net capacity increases projected for 2024 and 2025 [12]. - Prices of energy metals, including lithium and cobalt, remain high due to export controls and supply-side disruptions [13]. Group 4: Earnings Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry reported a significant increase in net profit, reaching 956.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 36.78% increase year-on-year [15]. - The industry’s earnings growth is accompanied by a low valuation, with the index's price-to-earnings ratio at a 37% percentile over the past decade, indicating potential for further upside [15][16]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider the non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) for exposure to the sector, as it encompasses a diverse range of metals and reduces individual stock risk [19][24]. - The article suggests that the ETF serves as a comprehensive tool for capturing the cyclical benefits of the non-ferrous metals market without the complexities of stock selection [24].