私募研究员的坦白局：选出一只好股票真的很复杂！

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stock selection in private equity investment, detailing a structured four-step process for identifying and validating potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Stock Selection Process - The first step involves screening and project initiation, which can be approached from three perspectives: macroeconomic, industry-specific, and individual stock analysis [6][11][12]. - The article highlights the significance of industry analysis, suggesting that mature industries can be mapped into clear supply chains, which can be analyzed to identify promising companies [13][19]. - A reverse deduction method is recommended for stock selection, starting from the downstream of the supply chain and moving upwards to identify companies with strong bargaining power and profit certainty [17][21]. Group 2: Validation and Research - The second step focuses on validation and research, which is described as the most critical and complex phase. It involves qualitative and quantitative analyses [24][32]. - Qualitative research assesses the company's competitive advantages, including technology validation, customer dependency, and management credibility [26][28][30]. - Quantitative analysis emphasizes the importance of cash flow over reported profits, as well as scrutinizing the company's expenditures to ensure alignment with its strategic claims [32][34]. Group 3: Decision Making and Tracking - The third step involves decision-making and purchasing, where researchers present their findings to an investment committee for approval, often requiring detailed investment memorandums [39][43]. - The final step is tracking and reviewing the investment post-purchase, ensuring that the original investment thesis remains valid and adjusting positions as necessary [45]. Group 4: Investment Performance - The article concludes that successful stock selection by skilled private equity researchers can lead to significant excess returns, particularly in bullish market conditions [48].