申万宏观·周度研究成果（9.20-9.26）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research and its continuous evolution, highlighting the team's commitment to providing valuable independent research outcomes for 2025 and beyond [8][10]. Group 1: Macro Investment - The article outlines ten essential readings for macro investment, tracking major asset performances and macro trends since the beginning of the year, including changes in gold, RMB/USD exchange rates, and bond yields [8]. Group 2: Domestic Economy - Six key judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, addressing areas such as tariff impacts, policy framework shifts, and new economic drivers, which differ from mainstream market expectations [8]. Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The year 2025 is positioned as a pivotal year for the research team, focusing on restructuring research frameworks and systematically presenting research findings, adhering to the principle of providing actionable insights [8]. Group 4: Classic Review - A review of Trump's "big cycle" and the re-evaluation of the dollar exchange rate is presented, discussing global trade imbalances and the U.S. twin deficits, along with potential solutions to these issues [10]. Group 5: Excess Savings - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings surpassing 10 trillion, questioning who is contributing to this increase and exploring potential release paths compared to international experiences [12]. Group 6: Interest Rate Trends - The article analyzes the implications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, examining historical patterns of long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the associated market dynamics [16]. Group 7: High-Frequency Tracking - Following the Federal Reserve's September meeting, global stock indices have generally continued to rise, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated interest rate cuts [18].