【策略】把握震荡布局窗口——策略周专题（2025年9月第4期）（张宇生/王国兴）

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive industry catalysts, with the overall market trending upwards [4]. Market Performance - The major indices in the A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising the most at 6.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw the smallest increase of 0.2% [4]. - The valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [4]. - Market styles have diverged, with growth stocks performing better; large-cap growth stocks increased by 2.5%, while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [4]. Important Events - In terms of policy, China will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations, and the LPR rates remain unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years [5]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes in the food service sector [5]. - There have been frequent interactions between China and the U.S., maintaining overall stability in bilateral relations [5]. Market Outlook - Historically, market fluctuations are common during bull markets, and the current market correction aligns with historical patterns. If the market continues to adjust, the potential decline could narrow the gains of the current upward phase to 6%-7%, with a possible low point around 3600 for the Shanghai Composite Index [7]. - Post-National Day, the market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and no significant overextension [7]. - The TMT sector is recommended for mid-to-long-term focus, as it is likely to be the main driver of market performance, supported by ongoing industry trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [7].