华创医药周观点：2025Q3医药业绩前瞻2025/09/28

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 1.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.54 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 30 CITIC first-level industries [7] - The top ten stocks by increase this week included Xiangrikui, Aopu Mai, and Xinlitai, with increases of 57.86%, 23.89%, and 15.81% respectively [7][37] - The top ten stocks by decrease included Borui Pharmaceutical and Jimin Health, with decreases of 38.36% and 19.65% respectively [7][37] Overall View and Investment Themes - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to the sector. The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the growth of the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, expecting diverse investment opportunities [12] - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, focusing on differentiated and internationalized pipelines. Companies that can deliver profitable products are expected to be favored [12] - In the medical device sector, there is a noticeable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and home medical devices are benefiting from subsidy policies. The company suggests focusing on key players in these areas [12] - The life sciences service sector is expected to see a rebound in overseas investment and domestic demand, with a focus on CXO and life science services as a growth driver [12] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in the specialty raw materials sector, which is expected to benefit from cost improvements and low valuations [12] Industry and Individual Stock Events - The Chinese traditional medicine sector is expected to see growth driven by basic drug reforms and national enterprise reforms, with a focus on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical [10][31] - The medical service sector is expected to improve due to anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement, enhancing the competitiveness of private medical institutions [13][26] - The blood products sector is projected to grow significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with increased approval for plasma stations and expanding product offerings [13] - The medical device market is experiencing a shift towards domestic alternatives, particularly in high-value consumables and imaging equipment, with significant growth expected in 2024 and beyond [20][21] 2025Q3 Pharmaceutical Performance Outlook - Expected revenue growth rates for various companies in Q3 2025 range from 0% to over 60%, with notable mentions including Bai Pu Sai Si and Kanglong Huacheng [14] - The innovative drug sector is expected to see significant contributions from companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals and Hengrui Medicine, with growth rates projected between 10% and 30% [14] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on the pharmaceutical retail sector, particularly in light of the accelerating trend of prescription outflow and the optimization of competitive dynamics [25] - In the medical device sector, attention is drawn to companies benefiting from the recovery in bidding for imaging equipment and the growth of home medical devices [20] - The life sciences service sector is highlighted for its potential recovery and growth opportunities, particularly in overseas markets [24]