证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年3月21日 www.hczq.com 本周行情回顾 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈·第167期 医药零售: 2025全渠道数据更新及B20财报总结 本周专题联系人：高初蕾 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 直席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002邮箱: liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李蝉娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初番 | 执业编号：S0360524070002邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号：S0360523080006邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号：S0360524070007邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执业编号：S03605250600 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of the intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) industry, driven by three main factors: the increasing volume of PCI surgeries, the rising penetration rate of IVUS in PCI procedures, and the significant potential for domestic replacement of imported IVUS products [9][24][26]. Group 1: PCI Surgery Volume Growth - The mortality rate from coronary artery disease (CAD) remains high, with a significant number of patients. In China, the death rates for rural and urban residents due to coronary heart disease were 14.82 and 13.51 per 10,000 respectively in 2021 [14]. - The number of CAD patients in China is projected to grow from 27 million in 2022 to 32 million by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 2.2%. Globally, the number of CAD patients is expected to increase from 213 million to 250 million during the same period, with a CAGR of about 2.0% [14][19]. - PCI has become the mainstream treatment for CAD, with advantages such as minimal invasiveness, effective results, and quick recovery times [14]. Group 2: Increasing IVUS Penetration in PCI - The penetration rate of IVUS in PCI procedures in China was only 15.4% in 2021, significantly lower than developed countries. The U.S. and Japan have penetration rates exceeding 23% [22][26]. - The domestic IVUS penetration rate has rapidly increased from 8.5% in 2020 to 15.4% in 2021, indicating a near doubling within a year. The usage of IVUS consumables in China is projected to rise from approximately 322,800 units in 2022 to 553,700 units in 2024 [26]. - The overall market size for IVUS in China is expected to grow from about 1.76 billion RMB in 2024 to 5.11 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 19.4% [26]. Group 3: Domestic Replacement Potential - The IVUS market in China is currently dominated by imported brands, with Boston Scientific and Philips holding 81.4% of the market share in 2024. Domestic brands like Beixin Life and Kaili Medical are gradually entering the market [24]. - As domestic supply increases and product quality improves, the trend towards domestic replacement is expected to accelerate, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [24][26]. - The domestic IVUS market is characterized by a growing number of approved products, with 10 products already on the market and one in clinical research [24].

根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本 资料进行任何形式的转发。若您不是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 摘要 丽珠集团：国产制药工业领先企业，加速创新转型。 丽珠的发展也正是伴随着中国制药产业的 崛起，从原料药到普仿药、从首仿专科药再到创新药，在产业转型升级的浪潮中公司同样也在不 断转型，公司培育出包括丽珠得乐、参芪扶正注射液、艾普拉唑系列和亮丙瑞林微球等重磅产 品。2000-2024年公司营业收入从11.8亿元增长至118.1亿元，年复合增速超10%，扣非净利 润从1038万元增长至19.8亿元，年复合增速为24.4%。 风险提示 ：1、创新药研发进度不及预期；2、国家集采推进进度超预期；3、医保控费力度超 预期；4、越南IMP公司收购进展不及预期。 免责声明 具体内容详见华创证券研究所2026年3月13日发布的报 告《丽珠集团（000513）深度研究报告：创新转型收获，国 产制药领导者迎新阶段 》 法律声明 华创证券研究所定位为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading provider of invisible orthodontic technology and products in China, having surpassed competitors in domestic market share since 2021, with robust performance despite industry pressures. The rapid growth of overseas business has significantly contributed to overall revenue, with overseas cases expected to reach approximately 140,700 in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 326% [3]. Group 1: Domestic Business Growth - The domestic invisible orthodontics market has substantial growth potential, with penetration rates nearing 16% in 2024, compared to 32% in the U.S. in 2020, indicating room for improvement, particularly in the youth/children and grassroots markets [4]. - Market concentration is increasing due to competitive pressures and policy changes, benefiting leading companies like this one as smaller players exit the market [4]. Group 2: International Expansion Potential - The global invisible orthodontics market is significantly larger than the domestic market, with case numbers being eight times higher. The company has opportunities to penetrate markets in the U.S., Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where there is considerable room for growth [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive product system and is enhancing its competitive edge through continuous R&D and digital upgrades, leveraging a vast clinical database for complex case handling [5]. - The company’s global market share has increased from 4.5% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, with expectations to reach over 20% in the future as it enters a new phase of international expansion [6]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $337 million, $412 million, and $495 million, with net profits of $27 million, $22 million, and $41 million respectively. The company is currently in a growth phase for its overseas business and is valued using a PS method, with a target market value of HKD 15.45 billion and a target share price of HKD 90.5 [6].

Market Overview - The CITIC Medical Index decreased by 2.52%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.45 percentage points, ranking 14th among 30 primary industries [9] - The top ten stocks by increase this week include Yahu Medicine-U, New Harmony, Zhejiang Medicine, and others, with increases ranging from 10.42% to 15.24% [9] Industry Insights and Investment Themes - **Innovative Drugs**: China has seen a high-quality growth in the number of therapies under research, significantly outpacing the global average. The total overseas licensing amount for domestic new drugs surpassed $10 billion for the first time in 2021, indicating a robust market share for Chinese innovative drugs [12] - **Medical Devices**: 1. The pressure from centralized procurement of high-value consumables is easing, allowing for continued development and value reassessment in the industry [12] 2. The scale of medical equipment bidding in China is showing signs of recovery, with a revenue inflection point expected by Q3 2025 [12] 3. The IVD sector is experiencing a gradual clearance of policy disruptions, enhancing local market penetration [12] 4. Leading domestic manufacturers of low-value consumables are upgrading their product lines to create new growth momentum [12] 5. Emerging technologies like AI in healthcare and brain-machine interfaces are expected to drive industry transformation [12] - **Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (CXO + APIs)**: Domestic CXO companies are seeing a good performance in front-end orders, which is expected to gradually translate into earnings, heralding a new wave of innovation in the pharmaceutical supply chain [12] - **Life Sciences Services**: The industry demand is recovering, with domestic substitution deepening and overseas expansion continuing, leading to a positive revenue outlook starting from Q4 2024 [12] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The market for essential medicines is expected to see significant growth, especially for unique essential medicines, while state-owned enterprise reforms are anticipated to enhance fundamentals [12] - **Pharmacies**: The sector is expected to benefit from prescription outflow and market optimization, with a notable shift towards online and offline integration [12] - **Medical Services**: The negative impact of medical reform policies is nearing its end, with the sector expected to return to a growth trajectory as the macroeconomic environment improves [12] - **Blood Products**: The approval of plasma stations is becoming more lenient, opening up further growth opportunities in the industry [12] Electrophysiology Industry Update - The demand for electrophysiology devices is expected to grow due to an increase in patients with rapid arrhythmias, driven by global aging [16] - The market for electrophysiology devices is projected to expand significantly, with the global market expected to reach $7.9 billion by 2025 and $20.1 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 11.0% [16] - In China, the electrophysiology device market is expected to grow from 15.7 billion yuan in 2025 to 42 billion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of 15.1% [16] - The number of patients with rapid arrhythmias in China is projected to reach 28.2 million by 2024, highlighting the critical need for effective treatment options [16] - Catheter ablation is recognized as the first-line therapy for rapid arrhythmias, offering advantages such as minimal invasiveness and effective outcomes [16] Competitive Landscape - The electrophysiology market in China is still largely dominated by international giants like Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, and Boston Scientific, indicating significant room for domestic manufacturers to grow [19] - Domestic companies such as Huatai Medical and Microelectrophysiology are making strides in technology innovation and product upgrades, gradually increasing their market share [19] - The market for electrophysiology mapping products is expected to see increased competition, with domestic firms gaining ground in various segments [19] Product Development and Regulatory Landscape - The approval rate for electrophysiology mapping devices has slowed, but the proportion of domestic products is increasing [24] - The introduction of advanced technologies such as AI-assisted mapping and integrated mapping and ablation functions is expected to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of electrophysiology procedures [24] - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for domestic manufacturers, facilitating the introduction of innovative products to the market [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Tongce Medical, a leading player in the dental healthcare sector, as it shifts from a high-price, high-margin consumer upgrade model to a more efficient, scalable, and inclusive quality medical paradigm after enduring significant market pressures [2]. Industry Changes - Consumer demand in the dental industry has become more segmented and rational, with a trend towards selecting higher cost-performance products and services, particularly evident in the invisible orthodontics sector where prices have consistently decreased over the past three years [3]. - The collective procurement mechanism has led to a rapid decline in dental implant prices, making the mid-to-low-end market a competitive battleground. This price drop has significantly improved the accessibility of dental services and stimulated growth in the mid-to-low-end market [3]. Company Growth Strategy - Tongce Medical is restructuring its production relationships through a departmental reform that breaks traditional localized management, establishing a vertical organizational system based on specialized capabilities and digital systems for comprehensive scheduling, laying the groundwork for platform transformation and operational efficiency [4]. - The company is developing a market grid system that covers approximately 30 million consumers, reaching nearly 50% of the provincial population. The introduction of mid-to-low-end products in its implant and orthodontic businesses is expected to unleash growth potential, benefiting from an expanding customer base and business synergy [4]. - The integration of an AI platform as a central infrastructure is enhancing operational, clinical, and service upgrades by embedding AI deeply into the entire treatment process [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its advantages in the mid-to-high-end market while penetrating the low-price market. Adjustments to the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate growth rates of xx%, xx%, and xx%, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of xx, xx, and xx for the same years. Given the strengthening brand power and strategic transformation, the company is anticipated to achieve clear and rapid growth, warranting a higher valuation level [5].

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec is poised to enter a commercial harvest period in the global XDC CRDMO sector, leveraging its end-to-end integrated bioconjugate drug CRDMO service capabilities and industry-leading technology platform [2] Group 1: Company Overview - WuXi AppTec has a strong technical foundation with proprietary technologies such as WuXiDARx™, X-LinC conjugation technology, and WuXiTecan-1 and WuXiTecan-2 payload conjugation platforms, establishing its leadership in the industry [3] - The company employs a strategy of "empower, follow, and win" to enhance early-stage client conversion and continuously attract new clients, resulting in a broad and rapidly growing customer base [3] Group 2: Market Potential - The bioconjugate drug industry is experiencing rapid growth, with ADC drugs expected to reach a sales figure of $66.2 billion by 2030, driven by the emergence of new ADC types such as bispecific ADCs and dual payload ADCs [2] - The outsourcing rate for ADC drug development is projected to remain high at around 60%, with WuXi AppTec expected to capture over 24% of the global ADC outsourcing market by 2025 [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for WuXi AppTec are estimated at 59.22 billion, 80.11 billion, and 104.61 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 46.1%, 35.3%, and 30.6% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 14.81 billion, 19.89 billion, and 26.00 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 38.5%, 34.3%, and 30.7% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, particularly in innovative drugs, with a significant increase in the number of therapies under development and a growing share in the global market [10]. Market Overview - The CITIC pharmaceutical index rose by 0.41% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.67 percentage points, ranking 24th among 30 primary industries [9]. - The top ten stocks by growth this week included Aidi Te, Koyuan Pharmaceutical, and Duorui Pharmaceutical, while the bottom ten included Zexing Pharmaceutical and Meihua Medical [9]. Investment Themes - **Innovative Drugs**: China has become a key player in global innovative drug development, with the total overseas licensing amount for domestic new drugs exceeding $10 billion for the first time in 2021, indicating a sustained increase in overseas licensing activity [10]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The market for essential medicines is expected to see significant growth, particularly for unique essential medicines, as the new medical insurance catalog expands [12]. - **Medical Devices**: The pressure from centralized procurement for high-value consumables is easing, and the industry is expected to see continued development driven by innovation [13]. - **Pharmaceutical Supply Chain (CXO + APIs)**: The domestic CXO companies are experiencing good growth in front-end orders, which is expected to translate into performance improvements [13]. - **Life Sciences Services**: The industry is seeing a recovery in demand, with a positive outlook for revenue growth starting from Q4 2024 [13]. Company Performance and Projections - **Medpace**: The company reported a revenue growth of 20% and has a clear revenue and profit growth guidance for 2026, with expected revenue growth of 4.7-6.0% [15][88]. - **IQVIA**: The company is benefiting from an improved macro environment, with a projected total revenue of $171.5-173.5 billion for 2026 [55]. - **Lonza**: The company expects a revenue growth of 11-12% for 2026, driven by strong demand for outsourcing and maturing growth projects [34][38]. - **Samsung Biologics**: The company anticipates a revenue growth of 15-20% for 2026, with strong performance in its biologics segment [34][46]. Financial Highlights - **IQVIA**: Reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.364 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [53]. - **Labcorp**: Achieved Q4 2025 revenue of $3.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [79]. - **Medpace**: Reported Q4 2025 revenue of $709 million, a year-on-year increase of 32.1% [88].

Core Viewpoint - The blood products industry is expected to experience a recovery in performance in 2026 after a period of supply-demand imbalance in 2025, driven by a reduction in supply growth and stable demand for key products like albumin and immunoglobulin [14][36][31]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 0.85%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 primary industries [8]. - The top ten stocks by growth this week included Aidi Te, Zhend Medical, and Olin Bio, while the worst performers included Beixin Life and Huayuan Bio [8]. Overall View and Investment Themes - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and internationalization [10]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and home medical devices are benefiting from subsidy policies [10]. - The innovation chain (CXO + life science services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas financing and a bottoming out in domestic financing, indicating a potential upturn in the industry [10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in the specialty raw materials sector, with a focus on patent expirations and vertical expansion [10]. Blood Products Industry Insights - The blood products sector has faced a supply-demand mismatch leading to short-term performance pressure, with a significant decline in net profit growth rates in 2025 [14][17]. - The industry is characterized by a long-term growth trajectory due to regulatory support for plasma collection stations and an expanding product range [11][17]. - The average price of albumin and immunoglobulin has been affected by supply-demand dynamics, with prices reflecting inventory trends [22][31]. - The domestic plasma collection volume has seen rapid growth, but the supply may face adjustments in 2026 due to a slowdown in growth rates [23][30]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a tightening due to reduced growth in plasma collection and a decrease in the number of import approvals for albumin [30][24]. - The demand for albumin remains robust, with sales showing resilience despite pricing pressures, while immunoglobulin sales are expected to stabilize [31][27]. - The market structure for blood products in China differs significantly from global trends, with albumin dominating the market share [37]. Future Outlook - The blood products industry is projected to improve in 2026 as supply constraints and stable demand lead to a more balanced market [36][32]. - Companies in the sector are expected to benefit from improved performance metrics as the supply-demand relationship normalizes [36][32]. - The ongoing consolidation within the industry, particularly among state-owned enterprises, is likely to enhance market stability and growth potential [43][38].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical retail market is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant growth opportunities anticipated in various segments, including traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, and innovative drugs [17][22][46]. Market Overview - The retail scale of China's physical pharmacies for January to November 2025 is projected to reach 557.7 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8%. However, the cumulative scale for October and November is expected to be 108.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [22][30]. - The pharmaceutical retail market is experiencing a recovery phase, driven by ongoing healthcare reforms and the optimization of market structures, which are expected to enhance the industry's long-term growth prospects [22][30]. Category Analysis - **Pharmaceuticals**: The cumulative scale for pharmaceuticals from January to November 2025 is estimated at 453.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%. The sales scale for October and November is projected to be 88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [29]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)**: The cumulative scale for TCM from January to November 2025 is expected to be 42.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.2%. However, November shows a month-on-month growth of 12.5% [30]. - **Medical Devices**: The cumulative scale for medical devices is projected to be 26.1 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4%. The sales scale for October and November is expected to show a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [37]. - **Health Products**: The cumulative scale for health products is anticipated to be 21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.7%. However, November shows signs of recovery with a month-on-month growth of 5.3% [34]. Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from a low valuation environment, with public funds showing low allocation to the sector. The anticipated recovery in macroeconomic factors and the demand for major products are expected to drive growth in the industry [15]. - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantity to quality, with a focus on differentiated products and internationalization. Companies with strong pipelines and the ability to deliver profits are recommended for investment [15][46]. - The medical device market is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes, with ongoing updates and international expansion opportunities. Companies focusing on innovation and product upgrades are expected to perform well [46]. Specific Product Trends - **Top Chemical Drugs**: In October and November 2025, the top 20 chemical drug categories accounted for 78.3% and 80.0% of the market share, respectively, with significant growth in categories such as anti-tumor drugs and systemic antiviral drugs [40][41]. - **Top Traditional Chinese Medicine Products**: The market share for TCM in November reached 86.4%, with notable growth in cold medications and cough remedies [44][45]. Conclusion - The pharmaceutical retail market is poised for a significant transformation, with various segments showing potential for growth. The ongoing reforms and market dynamics are expected to create a favorable environment for investment in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors [22][30][46].