证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年8月2日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈·第137期 CXO行业- 新周期、新起点 联系人:王宏雨 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002 邮箱: liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | 执业编号: S0360520110004 邮箱: lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 高初蓄 | 执业编号: S0360524070002 邮箱: gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 王宏雨 | 执业编号: S0360523080006 邮箱: wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | 执业编号: S0360524070007 邮箱: zhukechen@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 报告仅供46进券有限责任公司的客户使 ...

Market Review - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector is optimistic, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 1.97%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.28 percentage points [5] - The top ten stocks by increase include Haitai Biological, Zhendong Pharmaceutical, and Seli Medical, while the top ten stocks by decrease include *ST Suwu, Yong'an Pharmaceutical, and Lisheng Pharmaceutical [4][5] Sector Insights and Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to optimism for growth in the pharmaceutical industry by 2025 [9] - In the innovative drug space, there is a shift from quantity to quality, focusing on differentiated products and internationalization. Companies with profitable products are expected to perform well [9] - The medical device sector is seeing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and there is a push for home medical devices due to subsidy policies [9] - The CXO and life sciences services sector is expected to see a rebound in investment, with a gradual recovery in domestic financing [9] - The specialty API sector is poised for growth as costs improve and valuations are at a ten-year low, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on patent expirations [9] Industry and Company Events - The hypertension drug market in China is significant, with approximately 365 million patients, indicating a strong demand for hypertension medications [14] - The competitive landscape for hypertension drugs is intense, with many generic products available. However, innovative drugs remain scarce, presenting opportunities for companies in this space [18] - High blood pressure medications have strong brand loyalty and long life cycles, with low price sensitivity among patients, which enhances brand recognition [20] - Companies like Xinlitai are focusing on innovative hypertension drugs and expanding their product lines to include various combinations and new mechanisms [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - Company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic CDMO sector, with strong global competitiveness in API, CDMO, and formulation businesses, and is expected to enter a new growth cycle as CDMO business enters an explosive phase and other segments return to long-term growth trajectories [3][6]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business is poised for explosive growth due to stable product quality, strong cost control, and efficient customer service, positioning the company as a core player in global innovative drug CDMO [3]. - Domestic innovation drug industry is thriving, with leading biotech companies emerging, which is expected to drive the company's rapid growth as domestic API projects commercialize [3]. - Long-term partnerships with overseas pharmaceutical giants are anticipated to contribute to sustained revenue and profit growth from both human and veterinary drug projects [3]. Formulation Business - The company is accelerating its "multi-variety" strategy leveraging its integrated API and formulation advantages, with an expected approval of over 15 new formulation products annually starting in 2026 [4]. - Investment in differentiated competition through higher technical barriers in modified new drugs is ongoing, utilizing advanced drug technology platforms to support long-term growth in the formulation business [4]. API Business - The API and intermediate business remains the foundation and largest component of the company's operations, with antibiotics expected to stabilize and rebound in prices from H2 2025 to 2026 [5]. - The veterinary drug sector is nearing a clearing phase, with potential for significant profit elasticity upon price recovery [5]. - The company continues to expand its slow disease API product pipeline, ensuring growth through capacity and technical advantages [5]. - The aesthetic medicine segment is expected to grow rapidly through diversified product offerings and deepening collaborations with leading clients [5].

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 3.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.82 percentage points, ranking second among CITIC's 30 primary industries [5] - The top ten stocks by increase included: Borui Pharmaceutical (42.35%), Lifespring Pharmaceutical (41.68%), and Nanjing New Pharmaceutical (34.95%) [4][5] - The bottom ten stocks by decrease included: *ST Suwu, *ST Weiming, and Haobo Pharmaceutical, with declines ranging from -16.82% to -31% [4][5] Sector Insights and Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocations to this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors and the growth potential of major products [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and internationalization. Companies that can deliver profitable products are expected to perform well [9] - The medical device market is seeing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and there are ongoing updates in home medical devices supported by subsidy policies [9] - The innovation chain (CXO + life sciences services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas financing and a bottoming out in domestic financing, indicating a potential for high profit elasticity in the long term [9] Industry and Company Events - The 11th batch of national procurement products was officially released, including 55 varieties, with a total hospital sales amount of 32.772 billion yuan for 2024, averaging 5.96 million yuan per product [16][15] - The procurement list has seen a reduction of 7 products compared to the previous batch, with a total of 492 products included in the first eleven batches [15][16] - The impact of the procurement on domestic companies is limited, as the sales contribution of affected products to total revenue is relatively small [18] - The procurement process has clarified selection criteria, which may reduce disputes over certain products and improve company valuations over time [24][25]

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.98 percentage points, ranking 16th among 30 CITIC first-level industry indices [5] - The top ten stocks by increase this week include Frontier Biologics-U, Medici, Lianhuan Pharmaceutical, Kangchen Pharmaceutical, and others, with Frontier Biologics-U leading at 41.43% [4][5] - The bottom ten stocks by decrease include ST Weiming, Shenzhou Cell, and Shuotai Shen, with ST Weiming dropping by 18.51% [4][5] Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at a low point, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to the sector. The company remains optimistic about the growth of the pharmaceutical industry by 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and the demand from major categories [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity logic to quality logic, focusing on differentiated domestic and international pipelines. The company suggests paying more attention to products and companies that can ultimately realize profits [9] - In the medical device sector, there is a noticeable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is expected to benefit from subsidy policies. The company highlights the potential for import substitution and growth in the orthopedic sector post-collection [9] - The innovation chain (CXO + life sciences services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas investment and a bottoming out in domestic investment, with a potential return to high growth by 2025 [9] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, with a focus on specialty raw materials and the expiration of patents leading to new growth opportunities [9] Industry and Company Events - The company highlights the innovative layout of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, with several products in clinical II and III phases, including those targeting chronic insomnia and primary acute gouty arthritis [29][30] - Yunnan Baiyao has several drugs in various clinical stages, including those for prostate cancer and other conditions, indicating a robust pipeline [16][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of the blood products sector, which is expected to see significant growth due to relaxed approval processes and increased production capacity [14] - The innovative drug pipeline of Yiling Pharmaceutical focuses on cardiovascular, respiratory, and endocrine diseases, with multiple drugs in clinical trials [20][21]

Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 3.57%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.03 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 CITIC first-level industry indices [5] - The top ten stocks by increase this week include: Seer Medical (51.55%), Guangsheng Tang (48.64%), Shenzhou Cell (45.01%), and others [5][30] - The top ten stocks by decrease include: Linuo Medical (-5.73%), New Ganjing (-5.53%), ST Zhongzhu (-4.79%), and others [5][30] Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is low, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to this sector. The outlook for the pharmaceutical industry growth in 2025 remains optimistic due to macroeconomic factors and the driving effect of major categories [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of products that can generate profits. Companies with differentiated domestic and international pipelines are recommended for attention [9] - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is benefiting from subsidy policies. Companies in this space are expected to see growth [9][16] - The innovation chain (CXO + life science services) is expected to see a recovery in overseas investment and a bottoming out in domestic investment, leading to a new wave of innovation [9] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in the specialty raw materials sector, which is currently at a near ten-year low in valuation [9][22] Industry and Company Events - The blood products sector is expected to grow significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a loosening of plasma station approvals and an increase in product variety and capacity [12] - The IVD market, particularly in chemical luminescence, is projected to grow rapidly, with domestic brands increasing their market share due to accelerated domestic substitution [14] - The medical device market is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by a recovery in procurement and the introduction of new products [16] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the acceleration of prescription outflow and an improved competitive landscape, with a focus on chain pharmacies [12][20] - The life science services sector is recovering, with an increase in demand from both domestic and overseas markets, and a trend towards consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [21] Earnings Forecast for Q2 2025 - Companies such as Maipu Medical and Bide Pharmaceutical are expected to see revenue growth rates of around 30% and 20%+, respectively, in Q2 2025 [11] - The medical device sector is projected to have varied growth rates, with companies like Mindray Medical expected to experience a decline, while others like Huayi Medical are expected to see stable growth [11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies in the neuro-interventional and peripheral interventional sectors that are benefiting from procurement policies and have a comprehensive product lineup [19] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is recommended for investment due to the expected acceleration of prescription outflow and improved competitive dynamics [20] - Companies in the life science services sector are advised for attention due to the anticipated recovery in demand and the potential for high profit elasticity as they enter the return on investment phase [21]

Market Overview - The overall market sentiment indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocations to this sector. The macroeconomic environment, including the recovery of US Treasury rates, is expected to positively influence the industry growth outlook for 2025 [8][9] - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.48% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.47 percentage points, ranking 24th among 30 CITIC first-level industry indices [5] Key Stock Performances - Top-performing stocks this week include Shenzhou Cell (+30.45%), Haobio (+27.08%), and Huaren Health (+25.97%). Conversely, stocks that saw the largest declines include Yiming Pharmaceutical (-21.90%), Fuyuan Pharmaceutical (-11.50%), and Boryuan Pharmaceutical (-11.50%) [4][5] Investment Themes - **Innovative Drugs**: The domestic innovative drug sector is transitioning from a quantity-driven model to a quality-driven model, focusing on differentiated products and international pipelines. Companies that can deliver profitable products are expected to be favored [8] - **Medical Devices**: The medical device sector is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment. The home medical device market is also benefiting from subsidy policies, with significant growth expected [8][9] - **CXO and Life Science Services**: The investment landscape for CXO and life science services is showing signs of recovery, with an anticipated return to high growth by 2025. The demand for these services is expected to increase as the industry matures [8][42] Micro-Invasive Surgery Sector - The increasing elderly population and the rising penetration of micro-invasive surgeries are driving growth in this sector. The number of micro-invasive surgeries in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% from 2023 to 2028 [12][14] - The market for micro-invasive surgical instruments and consumables is expected to reach 407 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 11.5% from 2023 to 2028 [19] Domestic Companies to Watch - **Kangji Medical**: A leading player in the micro-invasive surgical consumables market, Kangji Medical holds a 3.8% market share and is the only domestic company among the top five. The company is expanding its product lines and has a strong presence in over 3,500 hospitals [31] - **Mindray Medical**: Mindray's micro-invasive surgical business has seen over 30% growth, with significant market expansion opportunities. The company is actively participating in procurement processes to increase its market share [32] Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The ongoing collection and procurement processes are expected to enhance the penetration and domestic replacement rates of micro-invasive surgical products. The market is currently dominated by foreign companies, but domestic players are gaining ground [24][28] - The collection processes have led to price reductions, benefiting local manufacturers and accelerating the shift towards domestic alternatives in high-value consumables [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive growth trends and competitive strategies of Kefu Medical, a leading comprehensive home medical device company in China, emphasizing its dual-channel approach and diverse product offerings [3][4]. Group 1: Business Overview - Kefu Medical operates in five major areas: rehabilitation aids, medical care, health monitoring, respiratory support, and traditional Chinese medicine therapy, with a strong focus on personal health management [3][4]. - The company has nearly 10,000 product models and specifications, maintaining a leading position in the e-commerce index for medical devices [3]. Group 2: Business Lines Performance - Rehabilitation Aids: Continuous optimization and expansion into new areas like back support and hearing aids are expected to drive growth [4]. - Medical Care: Revenue growth is stabilizing as the impact of pandemic-related business gradually diminishes [4]. - Health Monitoring: The company is set to launch a new calibration-free CGM product in 2024, which is anticipated to be a market leader due to its performance and pricing [4]. - Respiratory Support: Transitioning from international brand agency to self-branded products, enhancing revenue potential [4]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine Therapy: Expected to recover as pandemic restrictions ease and policy support increases [4]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - The company is enhancing its channel strategy with a balanced online (two-thirds) and offline (one-third) revenue distribution, covering major e-commerce platforms and a vast network of pharmacies [5]. - A multi-brand strategy is in place to cater to diverse market needs, with several sub-brands complementing the main brand "Kefu" [5]. - R&D capabilities are being strengthened to ensure efficient conversion of research outcomes into marketable products [5]. - The shift from OEM/ODM to self-owned brands is evident, with self-owned brand revenue exceeding 80% and self-produced products increasing from 22% in 2018 to 57% in 2023 [5]. - The company is leveraging AI and smart technologies to enhance operational efficiency across various functions [5].

Market Review - The overall market performance for the week saw the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decline by 4.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.71 percentage points, ranking last among 30 CITIC first-level industries [5] - The top ten stocks by increase included Angli Kang, Yuekang Pharmaceutical, and Innovation Medical, with gains of 21.21%, 19.34%, and 18.96% respectively [4][5] - The bottom ten stocks included Aoyang Health and Kanghui Pharmaceutical, with declines of 1% and 2% respectively [5] Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocations to this sector. The company remains optimistic about the growth of the pharmaceutical industry by 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and the performance of major products [9] - In the innovative drug sector, there is a shift from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and international pipelines. Companies that can deliver profitable products are recommended for attention [9] - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is supported by subsidy policies. The company suggests focusing on key players in this area [9] - The innovation chain (CXO + life sciences services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas investment and a bottoming out in domestic investment, indicating a potential for high growth in 2025 [9] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, with a focus on specialty raw materials and the expiration of patents leading to new opportunities [10] Orthopedic Consumables Industry Update - The orthopedic consumables market is categorized into joint, spine, trauma, and sports medicine segments, with joint and spine categories holding approximately 90% market share in 2022 [16] - The market size for joint products is projected to grow from 187 billion yuan in 2024 to 408 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 16.9% [24] - The spine products market is expected to grow from 171 billion yuan in 2024 to 335 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of about 14.4% [24] - The trauma products market is forecasted to increase from 170 billion yuan in 2024 to 315 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of around 13.2% [24] - The sports medicine market is anticipated to grow from 41 billion yuan in 2022 to 145 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 28.7% [24] Procurement Progress - The national procurement for orthopedic consumables has led to significant price reductions, with average price drops of 82% for joint products and 84% for spine products [30][31] - The procurement process has seen a high participation rate, with 171 companies bidding for spine products and a 98% success rate in the latest sports medicine procurement [35] - The domestic market is experiencing a rapid increase in the localization rate of orthopedic products, with joint product localization rising from 47% in 2020 to 79% in 2024 [25] International Expansion - The global orthopedic consumables market is projected to reach 48.6 billion USD (approximately 348.9 billion yuan) in 2024, with China's market share expected to be 17% [37] - Domestic companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with significant growth in overseas revenue share for companies like Spring Medical and Dabo Medical [38]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Aohua Endoscopy, is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 and 2025 due to external factors, including hospital procurement demand reduction and slow execution of national medical equipment replacement policies, but it is also making progress in new product development and overseas market expansion [3]. Group 1: Performance Outlook - Aohua Endoscopy's performance is under pressure due to ongoing anti-corruption measures affecting hospital procurement in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The national initiative for medical equipment replacement is progressing slower than expected in some regions, leading to unrecognized order revenues for Aohua Endoscopy in 2024 [3]. - The company is expected to face continued performance pressure in the short term as it works through inventory reduction, despite positive trends in medical equipment bidding data [3]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on R&D, with the next-generation ultra-high-definition endoscope system AQ-400 expected to be approved for market in the second half of 2025 [3]. - Aohua Endoscopy has completed preliminary reviews for its ultrasound endoscope patents and is set to enter the public phase in April 2025, while its ERCP surgical robot has begun clinical trials with a potential approval in 2027 [3]. - The overseas market for soft endoscopes presents significant growth potential, and Aohua Endoscopy is enhancing its product competitiveness and sales network to accelerate overseas sales [3]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Aohua Endoscopy is expected to see a breakthrough in operations in 2026, driven by the rapid market entry of AQ-400 and the anticipated approval of Olympus X1 4K endoscope [4]. - The company is implementing a share buyback for employee stock ownership plans, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [4]. - The soft endoscope industry is characterized by strong monopolistic dynamics and significant market potential, with future growth driven by consumables and maintenance services [4].