刘勇：香港开闸稳定币，投资者需警惕风险

Core Insights - Hong Kong is actively embracing the emerging financial landscape of stablecoins, with the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications closing on September 30, 2025, and expected to be issued by early 2026, positioning Hong Kong to capture a share of the over $250 billion stablecoin market [3][7] - The opening of the stablecoin market in Hong Kong aims to attract global issuing institutions, enhance international financial competitiveness, and explore new pathways for the internationalization of the Renminbi [3][4] - The U.S. stablecoin market is experiencing significant developments, with Tether planning to sell a 3% stake for approximately $20 billion, potentially raising its valuation to $500 billion, and the introduction of a U.S. regulated dollar stablecoin [3][4] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Stablecoin Market - The first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses is expected to be issued in early 2026, with 77 institutions expressing interest or entering sandbox testing as of the end of August 2025 [7] - The implementation of the stablecoin regulation in Hong Kong provides a clear legal framework and regulatory guidance, enhancing investor protection and attracting global stablecoin issuers [7][8] U.S. Stablecoin Developments - The global stablecoin annual transaction volume surpassed $25 trillion by August 2025, exceeding the total transactions of Visa and Mastercard combined [4] - The U.S. government is actively promoting stablecoin development, partly due to increasing debt pressures, with the "Genius Act" signed into law to establish a federal "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and "national digital asset reserve" [5][4] Financial Implications and Risks - Stablecoins are viewed as a tool to alleviate U.S. debt pressure, with predictions that if the dollar stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion, it could become a significant buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds [5] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for stablecoins to disrupt the existing U.S. dollar-dominated international payment system and the challenges they pose to the internationalization of the Renminbi [5][11] Regulatory and Market Reactions - The market has seen significant price increases in stocks related to stablecoins, driven by clearer regulatory policies and the potential for blockchain technology to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [8] - Caution is advised regarding the speculative nature of stablecoins, as many investors may lack the necessary knowledge to assess the true value and risks associated with these assets [8][12] Recommendations for Stablecoin Development - The book "Stablecoins: Reshaping the Global Financial Order" suggests a gradual approach to developing offshore Renminbi stablecoins, starting with Hong Kong and expanding to free trade zones [6][11] - The need for a cautious approach to stablecoin implementation is emphasized, with a focus on pilot programs and risk management to prevent financial instability and fraud [6][10]