【广发宏观团队】资产重估行至当下：约束与动能

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of asset revaluation, highlighting macroeconomic improvements, asset pricing recovery, and the strengthening trend of the AI industry as key characteristics since September 2024. It also provides insights into the performance of various indices and the implications for equity markets moving forward [1][2]. Macroeconomic Constraints - Asset pricing has begun to reflect nominal growth performance, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Wind All A Index at 3.1% by the end of 2024, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate during the same period [2]. - Short-term growth is showing signs of slowdown, with fixed asset investment declining rapidly, leading to increased growth pressure. Additionally, geopolitical factors, such as new tariffs announced by the U.S., are contributing to this environment [2]. - The market is currently focused on technology sectors, which are globally interconnected, meaning adjustments in overseas assets could cause disturbances in the domestic market [2]. Supporting Factors - New short-term growth policies are emerging, including a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool expected to stimulate project initiation in early Q4 [3]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will clarify the central government's suggestions for the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially leading to policy benefits in various sectors [3]. - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 may see local investments compensating for fixed asset investment shortfalls, aiding in economic rebalancing [3]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the asset rotation index is on the rise, with new pricing clues emerging from concerns over high valuations in U.S. stocks, interest rate cut divergences, and global supply chain disturbances [4][5]. - The U.S. stock market has shown weakness compared to European and Japanese markets, with significant declines in major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [5]. - Commodity prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with notable increases in oil and copper prices due to geopolitical risks and supply disruptions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, indicating resilience despite signs of economic cooling. Service consumption was a significant contributor to this growth [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's comments on high stock valuations and the labor market's weakening signals suggest a cautious outlook for future economic policies [15][16]. - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with production and demand signals indicating a need for careful monitoring of growth trends [19][20]. Industry Developments - The construction sector is seeing improvements in funding rates for housing projects, while non-housing projects continue to show positive trends [22]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reductions, indicating a shift towards sustainable development [24][25]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined growth plans for key industries, including steel and petrochemicals, with specific annual growth targets [26][27].