总结与展望 | 2025年三季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（中）

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in both supply and demand, with first-tier cities showing resilience in transaction growth despite overall market weakness [1][2][10]. Policy Section - New housing supply and demand have decreased by approximately 20% compared to the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18% [1][3]. - First-tier cities have shown a cumulative year-on-year increase in transactions, indicating strong market resilience [1][2]. Supply Section - In Q3 2025, the overall housing supply decreased significantly, with a 21% year-on-year decline in new supply across 110 key cities [3][4]. - First-tier cities experienced a 25% month-on-month decline in supply, but the year-on-year decline was less severe at 14% [7]. - Some second and third-tier cities, such as Kunming and Changchun, showed positive growth in supply, indicating localized recovery [8]. Transaction Section - New housing transactions fell to the lowest level in nearly five years, with a year-on-year decline of 18% in Q3 2025 [10][11]. - First-tier cities maintained a cumulative year-on-year transaction growth of 4%, outperforming second and third-tier cities [18][19]. - The overall transaction volume in second and third-tier cities decreased significantly, with some cities like Chengdu showing strong demand despite a decline [19]. Second-hand Market Section - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4% in transaction volume across 30 monitored cities [21][22]. - Cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year growth in second-hand transactions, while others like Nanjing and Zhengzhou are still in a correction phase [23]. Price Section - The price decline in new homes across 70 cities is slowing, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai maintaining price increases [25][26]. - High-end properties in core cities are experiencing stable demand, while lower-tier cities face price corrections due to oversupply [26]. Inventory Section - The inventory of new homes is gradually decreasing, with a total of 45.56 million square meters reported by the end of August 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decline [27][34]. - First-tier cities have manageable inventory levels, while second and third-tier cities face significant inventory challenges [34]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a slight increase in new housing supply, driven by policy support and increased marketing efforts from developers [36][38]. - The market is likely to experience a weak recovery, with an anticipated annual transaction decline of around 10% [38][39]. - The "Good House" initiative is gaining momentum, with a focus on high-quality housing driven by policy support and market demand [75].