多地购车补贴戛然而止

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to local automotive consumption subsidy policies in China are expected to impact the automotive sales in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about the demand for upstream supply chains, particularly lithium batteries [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Multiple provinces, including Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hunan, Anhui, and Henan, have announced the suspension or adjustment of local "trade-in" subsidy policies due to rapid consumption of budget funds [4][5]. - Jiangsu province has specifically suspended the "automobile trade-in" subsidy and shifted the "scrap update" subsidy to a quota management model starting from September 28, 2025 [3][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustments to local subsidies are likely to create short-term fluctuations in automotive sales, similar to the significant drop in sales observed after a major subsidy reduction in 2019 [6]. - The concentration of subsidy adjustments may pressure automotive sales in the fourth quarter, as consumers might rush to purchase vehicles before the subsidy expiration, potentially inflating sales data temporarily [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Effects - The uncertainty in sales expectations may lead automotive manufacturers to adjust their production plans, which will directly affect their procurement orders for power batteries [7]. - A reduction in demand for power batteries will subsequently decrease the procurement of key upstream materials, particularly lithium carbonate, which has already seen a price decline since August [8]. Group 4: Market Transition - The widespread adjustment of local subsidies signifies a shift in the Chinese electric vehicle market from being driven by policies and market incentives to a focus on market competition and product strength [8].