国泰海通｜策略：资产概览：商品表现强于股债——资产配置全球跟踪2025年9月第4期

Group 1: Market Overview - Global equity indices experienced a pullback, with the MSCI Global Index declining by 0.5% after three consecutive weeks of gains [2] - Emerging markets saw a greater decline compared to developed markets, with Asian markets underperforming Europe and North America [2] - A-shares performed well, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index which surged by 6.5%, while the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 rose by 2.0% and 1.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market showed a "bear flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread narrowing [3] - In the U.S. bond market, the yield curve also moved upward, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10Y-3M spread widening [3] - As of September 27, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October dropped to 87.7%, with expectations for two rate cuts this year totaling 50 basis points [3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency - Commodity prices overall increased, with the South China and CRB commodity indices rising by 0.2% and 2.0% respectively [4] - COMEX silver has seen a year-to-date increase of 59.6%, marking a significant rise [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.6%, while major currencies like the euro, pound, and yuan depreciated against the dollar [4]