中金：中美信用周期或再迎拐点

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the credit cycle in analyzing the macroeconomic trends and asset prices in China and the U.S., highlighting the divergence in their economic and monetary cycles since mid-2021. The credit cycle framework helps explain the resilience of U.S. growth and stock valuations under high interest rates, while China's growth and valuations face pressure under low interest rates from 2022 to 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Credit Cycle Components - The credit cycle consists of three main components: new industrial trends represented by AI, government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional private sector demand represented by real estate consumption and manufacturing. The effectiveness of the latter two components largely depends on the difference between investment returns and financing costs [2]. - The U.S. credit cycle may restart after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, potentially leading to overheating risks, while China's credit cycle may experience fluctuations or weakness due to high base effects, necessitating increased policy support [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Recent Developments - Since the fourth quarter of last year, both China and the U.S. have experienced turning points in their credit cycles. China's credit cycle has been recovering due to fiscal efforts and reduced private sector drag, while the U.S. has faced challenges leading to credit contraction [5][6]. - In China, significant fiscal stimulus has led to a notable increase in government spending, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% in broad fiscal expenditure from January to August. The fiscal deficit pulse improved from 1.1% at the end of last year to a peak of 2% in June, before slightly retreating to 1.6% in August [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Credit Cycle Challenges - The U.S. credit cycle has faced contraction due to various challenges, including reduced fiscal spending and concerns over AI investment sustainability. Despite initial fears, technology investments have accelerated since the second quarter, with capital expenditures of major tech firms increasing by 67% year-on-year [10][12]. - Government credit has contracted since the beginning of the year, with the fiscal pulse declining due to high base effects. The private sector's credit growth has also slowed, with private social financing growth dropping from 2.6% in March to 1.8% in August [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the U.S. Credit Cycle - Looking ahead, the U.S. credit cycle is expected to recover, driven by AI investments, fiscal spending, and a gradual recovery in traditional private demand. The new fiscal year starting in October is anticipated to see increased government spending, with an estimated $480 billion in new expenditures [24][26]. - Traditional demand is expected to improve following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with mortgage rates declining and new home sales reaching an annualized rate of 800,000 in August, the highest since January 2022 [30][32]. Group 5: Implications for China - China's credit cycle is likely to face challenges due to high base effects, with traditional private demand showing signs of slowing down. Retail sales growth has declined, and real estate sales remain weak, necessitating policy intervention to support the credit cycle [47][48]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in influencing the overall credit cycle, but it may also face high base challenges. The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate has already shown signs of slowing down, which could impact the effectiveness of fiscal measures [57][58].