金属周报 | Grasberg矿难冲击全球铜供应，挤仓风险引爆白银行情

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].