东京烘焙职业人·2025-09-29 08:33Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with an overall sales decline of 3.1% in 2024, contrasting with the general recovery in the fast-moving consumer goods market. The market is currently dominated by a duopoly of Yili and Mengniu, which together hold over 50% market share [5][23][59]. Industry Overview - The dairy industry connects agriculture and food processing, producing various dairy products such as liquid milk, milk powder, cheese, and butter [8][9][11]. - The industry has experienced rapid growth due to China's economic development and large population, evolving through six historical phases from scarcity to recovery [14][19]. Current Industry Status - The overall fast-moving consumer goods market is recovering, with a growth rate of 3.0%, while the dairy sector is projected to decline by 3.1% in 2024 [23]. - The retail scale of the dairy market is expected to reach approximately 5,216.70 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 5,966.60 billion yuan by 2026 [29]. Market Structure - The dairy industry is characterized by a strong bargaining power in the midstream processing segment, while upstream raw milk supply faces profit pressure. Approximately 10.5% of raw milk supply relies on imported milk powder [6][40]. - The consumption structure is primarily composed of liquid milk (44.0%) and milk powder (32.5%), with significant differences in per capita consumption between urban and rural areas [56]. Future Outlook - The industry faces both opportunities and challenges, including rising feed costs, technological bottlenecks in deep processing, and systemic overcapacity [7][67]. - The B-end market for cheese and butter is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 703 billion yuan by 2028, driven by demand in the catering and baking sectors [75]. - The digitalization of cold chain logistics is anticipated to enhance the low-temperature milk market, reducing waste and improving distribution efficiency [76]. Policy Environment - Recent policies have shifted focus from safety reconstruction to enhancing quality and competitiveness, with strict quality regulations and support for industry integration [33][35]. - Key policies include the "Dairy Quality Safety Enhancement Action Plan" and initiatives to improve milk source bases and promote digital management in dairy farming [35]. Competitive Landscape - The market is dominated by Yili and Mengniu, which together account for over 50% of the dairy market share, showcasing significant scale advantages and brand influence [59]. - Yili Group, established in 1993, is a leading player with a diverse product portfolio and substantial revenue from liquid milk and milk powder [63][64].