美银Hartnett：关键指标显示AI还没有风险，警惕美元反弹对热门交易的冲击

Core Viewpoint - The current credit spread of tech stocks in the US is at an 18-year low, indicating that the AI-driven tech stock rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][4][6] - The primary risk in the market is not a bubble burst but an unexpected strengthening of the US dollar, which could trigger a collective unwinding of the consensus trade of shorting the dollar [3][10] Credit Spread Analysis - The credit spread is a measure of the additional yield on corporate bonds compared to risk-free government bonds, and a narrowing spread suggests low perceived default risk for issuing companies [6] - The current low credit spread for tech stocks indicates that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies, contrasting with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios where credit risk rises sharply [4][6] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Recent EPFR fund flow data shows a continued influx of capital into various asset classes, with $24.7 billion into bond funds, $21.3 billion into cash, $19.6 billion into stocks, $5.6 billion into gold, and $0.6 billion into cryptocurrencies, reflecting overall investor optimism despite discussions of potential market corrections [7] - The performance of gold, which has risen 41.3% year-to-date, contrasts with the US dollar's 9.2% decline, highlighting the negative correlation between a weakening dollar and rising risk assets [8][9] Dollar Dynamics - The depreciation of the dollar is identified as the core driver of the current asset price increases, with central banks globally having cut rates 168 times in the past year, injecting significant liquidity into the market [9] - The consensus trade of shorting the dollar poses a risk; if the dollar index unexpectedly rebounds and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could lead to a risk-averse collective unwinding of various consensus trades [10]