“申”度解盘 | 震荡后半段，拾阶而上

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's performance in September, indicating a four-week period of overall fluctuation, similar to the five-week fluctuation observed in May. It suggests that the market is likely to experience a contraction in trading volume before the upcoming holiday [1][3]. Market Outlook Before the Holiday - Historical data from the past ten years shows that only last year saw an increase in margin trading before the holiday, while other years, including 2014, experienced a decrease. Therefore, a contraction in trading volume is expected before the holiday [3][4]. Market Outlook After the Holiday - Following the period of fluctuation, there is potential for upward movement. Historical data indicates that if there is a fluctuation before the holiday, the market often performs well afterward [4]. - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply, indicating a clear intention to support the capital market [4]. - The article notes that while overseas trading volumes are currently significant, historical trends suggest that sectors that have performed well in the first three quarters often see average performance in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a rotation among technology, finance, and cyclical sectors is anticipated in the upcoming quarter [4].