中金：共识之外的行业配置线索

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment opportunities and risks in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of identifying sectors beyond the high-consensus growth areas like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, especially as the market enters a phase of volatility [2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since late June, A-share indices have experienced accelerated growth, primarily driven by high-consensus sectors, contributing significantly to overall index returns [2]. - Over 70% of industries underperformed the Wind All A Index, which rose by 24% from June 23 to September 24, indicating that low exposure to high-consensus sectors may hinder excess returns [2]. Group 2: Capacity Cycle Insights - The article highlights the significance of identifying turning point industries and elastic sectors from a capacity cycle perspective, noting that this strategy has yielded good excess returns during market downturns [4]. - Key industries identified for 2023 include communication equipment, commercial vehicles, and marine equipment, with consumer electronics and components expected to perform well in early 2024 [4]. Group 3: Capacity Cycle Phases - The capacity cycle is divided into six phases, ranging from supply-demand imbalance to industry expansion, with most sectors currently in the third phase of deep capacity reduction [5][6]. - Recent reports indicate significant progress in capacity reduction among listed companies, with non-financial corporate capital expenditure declining for five consecutive quarters, suggesting a move towards supply-demand balance [6]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - In the energy and raw materials sector, coal mining is projected to see a 141% increase in capital expenditure from 2022 to 2024, despite weak demand, indicating a shift towards phase one of supply-demand imbalance [8]. - Industrial metals and minor metals are favored due to their current capacity clearing status and demand growth driven by AI and global geopolitical factors [8]. Group 5: High-End Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing has shown significant improvement in capacity cycle positions, with automotive parts and communication equipment meeting supply clearing conditions [10]. - The battery sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with strong growth in demand and a reduction in capital expenditure across the industry [10]. Group 6: Traditional Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing - Traditional manufacturing sectors like marine equipment and motorcycles have begun new capital expenditure cycles, but demand growth remains crucial for future performance [11]. - Newly identified sectors for potential investment include engineering machinery, aquaculture, and feed, which have shown signs of capacity clearing and demand improvement [11].