对标“黄金90年代” BMO喊出标普500新目标：7000点！

Core Viewpoint - BMO Capital Markets has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7000 points, reflecting a bullish outlook amid strong market performance [1] Scenario Analysis - Bull Market Scenario: The S&P 500 index could reach 7300 points with earnings per share (EPS) of 290 USD, driven by resilient economic growth, relaxed tariff policies, and potential Fed rate cuts [2] - Base Case Scenario: The S&P 500 index is expected to hit 7000 points with EPS of 275 USD, assuming a stable labor market and controlled inflation [2] - Bear Market Scenario: If stagflation re-emerges and the Fed halts its easing cycle, the S&P 500 index may drop to 6000 points with EPS of 260 USD [2] Sector Allocation - BMO maintains an "overweight" stance on technology stocks (33% allocation), financials (14.5%), and consumer discretionary stocks (11%), while adopting an "underweight" strategy for healthcare and consumer staples [2] Market Environment - The current market environment is likened to the "Goldilocks" period of the mid-1990s, characterized by moderate economic growth and manageable inflation, supporting strong corporate earnings and market valuations [1]