清华金融评论·2025-09-29 11:36Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's capital market has significant growth potential, as indicated by the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, which currently stands at 70%, suggesting room for expansion [6][11]. Group 1: Capital Market Maturity - A hard indicator for assessing a country's capital market maturity is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP, ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. A ratio below 1:1 indicates underdevelopment, while a ratio above 1:1.2 suggests potential bubbles [6]. - China's capital market total was over 70 trillion RMB at the beginning of the year and has reached 100 trillion RMB, with a GDP of approximately 140 trillion RMB, resulting in a market-to-GDP ratio of 70% [6][11]. - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to double, potentially leading to a stock market total of around 400 trillion RMB if the market-to-GDP ratio reaches 100%-120% [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advocates for early, small, long-term investments in hard technology, aligning with recent government encouragement for venture capital and private equity to adjust their investment focus [7][8]. - Currently, about 40% of the total 30 trillion RMB in venture capital is invested in low-risk fixed-income assets, which distorts the intended investment direction [7]. - The ideal investment approach should start at the early stages of company development, focusing on transformative investments as companies grow [8]. Group 3: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for driving innovation and efficiency in manufacturing, serving as a foundation for high-value unicorn companies [9][12]. - This sector includes ten major categories, such as hard technology R&D, logistics, supply chain finance, and digital services, which are essential for enhancing productivity and economic growth [9][10]. - The productive service industry has shown a significant growth rate of 12.1% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing other sectors and contributing to GDP growth [10][12]. Group 4: Unicorn Companies and Investment Focus - The article highlights that many unicorn companies globally are rooted in the productive service industry, with a significant portion of their market value derived from this sector [12][13]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft exemplify how productive service industries can drive high margins and value creation, often outsourcing manufacturing while controlling the service aspects [13][14]. - Investment should target various categories of productive service companies, including small specialized firms and established leaders in the sector, to foster growth and innovation [15][17].