2025主观多头“进攻年”：抓主线、控回撤、拼节奏

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the context of AI and hard technology gaining traction, along with supportive policies and liquidity, the subjective long strategy is expected to achieve a "high win rate + high return" offensive market in 2025, with significant acceleration in returns observed from June to August [2] Performance Overview - In June, the subjective long strategy index recorded a monthly return of +3.88%, with a year-to-date cumulative return of +7.52% as of June 30. By August, the index's monthly return surged to +8.66%, leading to a year-to-date cumulative return of +22.59% as of August 29, indicating a clear acceleration phase [3] - By September 19, the excess return of the long strategy relative to the broad index further expanded [3] Sector Performance - In the third quarter, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the technology sector performed prominently, with the communication, electronics, and computer sectors leading the gains. The Hang Seng Technology Index showed significant year-to-date growth, reinforcing the "Chinese technology beta" narrative [5] - The subjective long strategy benefited from the technology growth narrative, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks and high-elasticity sectors, which provided substantial alpha opportunities, contributing to a steeper return curve [5] Investment Strategy - The article outlines three "alpha paths" for the year: 1. The industrial chain mainline alpha focusing on AI computing power, semiconductors, and communication equipment, supported by domestic substitution logic, offering both beta and alpha opportunities 2. Cross-market allocation alpha, where the low valuation rebound of Hong Kong technology stocks and the influx of southbound capital resonate with returns 3. Timing and rotation alpha, where subjective long strategies manage flexible positions to switch to lower-valued but continuing growth sectors during adjustments in AI and semiconductor sectors [8] - The technology mainline is expected to maintain resilience, with a focus on "timing" over "direction" in investment strategies [8] Portfolio Construction - A "core + satellite" approach is recommended for portfolio construction, where the core consists of larger subjective long strategies with deep industry research and risk control systems, while the satellite includes smaller aggressive products aimed at capturing alpha during structural acceleration periods. The ratio of these two components should be adjusted based on market fluctuations and valuation dynamics [9] - Risk management strategies include reducing leverage and positions to hedge against extreme drawdowns, and introducing dividend-yielding assets to lower portfolio volatility [9] Market Outlook - The year 2025 is characterized as an "offensive year" for subjective long strategies, capitalizing on the growth narrative in technology and the rhythm of market rotations, with a notable steepening of the return curve observed in summer. However, the management of rhythm and risk control will be crucial for success in the fourth quarter [10]