集装箱吞吐量维持高位——每周经济观察第39期

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index rose to 8.78% as of September 21, up 1.23 percentage points from the previous week, driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][9]. - High-frequency data for infrastructure shows a recovery, with asphalt plant operating rates at 40.1%, up 11.1% year-on-year and 5.7% week-on-week [2][20]. - The port container throughput remains high, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.4%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous week's 10.9% [2][26]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a weekly year-on-year increase of 9% in the third week of September, but the cumulative monthly growth remains low at 0.7% [3][15]. - The sales of residential properties maintained positive growth but showed a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in the first 26 days of September compared to 15% in the previous two weeks [3][15]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 2.8% in the first three weeks of September, down from 3.61% in August [3][15]. Group 3: Production and Industry - The construction sector has seen a recovery in high-frequency data, with both asphalt and cement dispatch rates improving compared to last year [2][20]. - Industrial production indicators show a year-on-year increase of 23.4% in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port as of September 28, compared to 8.2% in August [20]. - The steel industry has introduced a growth stabilization plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% over the next two years, with strict controls on new capacity [25][21]. Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The S&P manufacturing PMI for major economies (US and Europe) fell to 49.2 in September, down from 50.2 in August, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [26]. - The US announced new tariffs effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture, which may impact related industries [28]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased to $3734.2 per ounce, up 1.3%, while oil prices also saw significant gains, with WTI crude at $65.7 per barrel, up 4.9% [2][39]. - The domestic coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 701 yuan per ton, down 0.4%, while the price of cement increased by 2.5% [40][42]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.3825%, 1.6234%, and 1.8768%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [58][44]. - A total of 593 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of September 29, with 494 billion yuan designated for special bonds [44].