新的行业关税有何影响？——特朗普关税政策更新&海外周报第108期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement made by Trump regarding the imposition of new tariffs on various goods starting October 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 100% [2][4]. Group 1: New Industry Tariffs and Import Scale - Trump announced tariffs on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related goods at 50%, upholstered furniture at 30%, patented and branded drugs at 100% (with exemptions for certain pharmaceutical companies), and heavy trucks at 25% [5][15]. - The estimated total import value for these four categories in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total [5][16]. - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947 [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming important economic data includes the ADP employment numbers, S&P manufacturing PMI final value, and ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1, followed by the non-farm payroll report on October 3 [6][17]. - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, while mortgage loan rates have decreased, leading to a significant increase in mortgage applications [7][25]. - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market [29]. Group 3: Financial Conditions and Market Trends - Financial conditions in the U.S. have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while those in the Eurozone have tightened [35]. - The offshore dollar liquidity has shown signs of tightening, particularly in the euro to dollar exchange [37]. - The credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, reflecting changing market conditions [40].