国泰海通｜固收：跨季前后的阶段性平台期

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant correction, but there is potential for stabilization and partial recovery in the near term, particularly in the fourth quarter, despite a generally weak long-term trend [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a comprehensive pullback, with notable declines in high-elasticity instruments such as 30-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds, alongside a deeper drop in credit bonds, particularly those heavily held by funds [1]. - Historical patterns suggest that the bond market typically exhibits a "weak first, strong later" trend in the fourth quarter, but the situation in 2025 may differ, with expectations of no new policies leading to a "not weak, not strong" scenario [1][2]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including liquidity injections and major banks actively purchasing bonds, indicate a supportive stance towards current bond market pricing [1]. Group 2: Fund and Credit Market Influences - The recent bond market correction is partly attributed to discussions surrounding the adjustment of fund fee rates, which has led to "preventive redemptions" affecting public funds [2]. - The potential impact of fund fee adjustments may not be as immediate as anticipated, with a transition period likely, and no significant redemption signs currently observed in bank wealth management products [2]. - Insurance funds are gradually showing interest in long-duration bonds, particularly as the market stabilizes, with a preference for stable coupon bonds despite a potential decrease in demand for ultra-long bonds in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a short-term stabilization phase, with previous negative factors already priced in, and a reduced likelihood of rapid declines [3]. - The outlook for October suggests a probable platform period for the bond market, with certain bond types, such as policy bank bonds and specific credit bonds, potentially experiencing recovery opportunities [3]. - Future attention should focus on the marginal changes in risk assets and allocation forces as the year-end approaches [3].