国泰海通｜煤炭：反内卷及国企改革有望成为后续行业重点方向

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices are expected to rebound in the off-season, with pressure remaining in the first half of 2026 but easing compared to the same period in 2025, and a significant increase in coal prices anticipated in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities from State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The investment opportunities arising from state-owned enterprise reform should be emphasized, potentially leading to a sector-wide effect [2] - Following China Shenhua's announcement of a trillion-yuan asset acquisition, five listed companies in Henan have announced strategic restructuring, indicating a top-down approach from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - The rapid energy system consolidation in Henan Province reflects a significant breakthrough in state-owned enterprise reform within the coal and electricity sectors, likely to spark a new wave of reform enthusiasm in A-share markets [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - On the demand side, total electricity consumption in August has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.6%, significantly up from 2.5% in Q1, with expectations for annual growth to exceed 5% [2] - On the supply side, the output of industrial raw coal in August was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 10 million tons [2] - The total coal production for the year is projected to be stable at 475-480 million tons, with a slight decline in H2 due to "overproduction checks" [2] Group 3: Coal Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 713 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous week, indicating a seasonal price rebound [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1710 yuan/ton, up 6.2%, suggesting a potential for sustained demand despite seasonal trends [4] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises was reported at 79.18%, indicating stable production levels [4]