【有色】自由港削减2025、2026年产量指引，10-12月国内空调排产环比改善——铜行业周报（0922-0926）（王招华等）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on copper prices due to increasing supply constraints and improving demand dynamics in the upcoming months [4]. Supply and Demand - As of September 26, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 82,470 CNY/ton, up 3.20% from September 19, while LME copper closed at 10,205 USD/ton, up 2.09% [4]. - Freeport's Grasburg mine incident has led to a reduction in production by 20,000 tons in 2025 and 27,000 tons in 2026, accounting for 0.9% and 1.2% of global copper mine production in 2024, respectively [4]. - The copper supply remains tight, with downstream demand from sectors like air conditioning expected to improve in Q4 [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 5.9%, while LME copper inventory fell by 0.7% [5]. - As of September 26, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 638,000 tons, down 12.0% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 568,000 tons as of September 22, 2025, up 1.9% [5]. Production Data - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 1.6% year-on-year, while global production increased by 7.2% to 2,012,000 tons [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,011 CNY/ton as of September 26, 2025, reflecting a significant increase from the previous week [6]. Smelting and Trade - In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,171,500 tons, up 15.6% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price was -40.30 USD/ton, indicating a slight increase but remaining at historically low levels [7]. - Electrolytic copper imports rose by 6% year-on-year, while exports increased by 19% [7]. Demand Insights - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, reported a week-on-week decrease in operating rates by 0.4 percentage points [8][9]. - Home air conditioning production for October to December is expected to be better than previous forecasts, with year-on-year declines of 18%, 15%, and 9% [9]. - Copper rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rates by 1 percentage point year-on-year [9]. Futures Market - As of September 26, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 29.4% week-on-week, indicating strong market interest [10]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 0.4%, reflecting a slight pullback in speculative interest [10].