Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up by 0.61% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in August 2025 is -2.8 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3759 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Recent price changes include rebar down by 1.22%, cement price index up by 2.51%, rubber up by 0.34%, coking coal up by 2.78%, and iron ore up by 0.25% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires have changed by +0.51 percentage points, -1.00 percentage points, +7.3 percentage points, and +0.06 percentage points respectively [5] - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in mid-September decreased by 0.67% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass have increased by 0.15% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit margins at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1163 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 3.29%, and aluminum down by 0.05%, with corresponding profit margins showing mixed results [7] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 73.58%, down by 0.08 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic copper has reached a new high since June at 82680 yuan/ton, up by 3.29% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 20830 yuan/ton, with estimated profits of 3665 yuan/ton, up by 2.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is at 269000 yuan/ton, down by 2.00% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low for the year at 84 times [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 150 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 130 yuan/ton, up by 18.18% from last week [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1087.41 points, down by 2.93% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.40%, down by 0.50 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals at +5.15% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB is at 33.74% and 88.92% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]
【钢铁】沥青开工率处于五年同期最高，球墨铸管价格、加工费处于年内高位——金属周期品高频数据周报（9.22-9.28）（王招华等）
光大证券研究·2025-09-29 23:06