"昂贵"就是新标准？华尔街开始接受股市估值"新常态"

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is forming a new consensus to abandon traditional P/E ratio perceptions, viewing current high valuations as a "new normal" rather than expecting a return to past averages [1][3]. Valuation Center Shift - The valuation center of the S&P 500 index has structurally shifted upwards, supported by multiple factors such as reduced recession frequency, a transition to technology and service industries, and increased profit stability [3][4]. - The rolling average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has increased from approximately 14 times in the early 1990s to about 19.5 times today, marking a significant leap in valuation ranges [4]. Supporting Factors for Valuation Increase - The frequency of economic recessions in the U.S. has significantly decreased from about 42% historically to around 10% in the past 30 years, contributing to the upward trend in valuations [5]. - The U.S. economy has transitioned from an industrial focus to one dominated by technology and services, favoring growth stocks that support higher valuations [5][6]. - Structural changes such as the rise of electronic trading and increased participation from individual and international investors have improved market liquidity, further supporting higher valuations [6]. Component Stock Changes - Current S&P 500 component stocks exhibit lower financial leverage, reduced earnings volatility, higher efficiency, and more stable profit margins compared to previous decades, justifying the inflated valuation multiples [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that today's valuation multiples should be viewed as anchors for the new normal rather than expecting a mean reversion to past levels [8]. Valuation Outlook - Some analysts, like Jonathan Golub, propose a more moderate view, suggesting that the market is not in a state of continuous upward valuation drift but rather "re-anchoring" at a higher level [8]. - Golub notes that if borrowing costs were to rise significantly, valuations could revert to historical averages, although no such risks are currently evident [9].