【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的9月经济：价格篇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodity prices, highlighting the mixed performance across sectors, with some showing strength due to external factors like overseas interest rate cuts and supply disruptions in Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 865 points as of September 29, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the end of August, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 3.8% month-on-month [1][4]. - Domestic demand for bulk commodities saw most prices increase, with glass and coking coal futures rising by 15.2% and 2.1% respectively, while chemical products and cement prices saw slight declines [9][10]. - The South China comprehensive index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.0% compared to the previous 3.3% [9][10]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index for four first-tier cities showing changes of -0.7%, -0.4%, 1.6%, and -0.2% respectively compared to the last week of August [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors showed strong price performance, with the photovoltaic industry composite index rising by 6.9% month-on-month, and the DXI index for the semiconductor sector increasing by 25.7% [11][11]. Group 4: Non-Food Prices - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, slightly increased to 100.20 as of September 29, with notable increases in housing, daily necessities, and transportation services [14]. - In the export shipping sector, container shipping prices generally declined, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% [14][15]. Group 5: Logistics and Food Prices - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous 0.8% [18]. - Food prices showed mixed trends, with a 3.1% decrease in the average wholesale price of pork, while key vegetable prices rose by 1.4% [19].