国泰海通｜汽车：人形机器人闪耀2025上海工博会

Core Insights - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the automotive industry, emphasizing the importance of humanoid robots in creating demand and identifying high-cost performance technology routes similar to lithium iron phosphate batteries in electric vehicles [1][2] - The domestic passenger car market faces increased competition as the effects of the vehicle replacement program diminish by 2025 [1] - The heavy-duty truck market has shown significant growth due to the vehicle replacement program initiated in May, with AIDC's diesel engine business driving industrial upgrades [1] - The growth potential in the auto parts industry is becoming scarce, with recommendations for companies that have significant room for product penetration and localization [1] Market Performance - In the week from September 19 to September 26, 2025, the Shenwan Automotive Index remained stable, while the New Energy Vehicle Index fell by 2%, the Automotive Parts Index was stable, and the Commercial Vehicle Index dropped by 3% [1] - Compared to the Wind All A Index, the Shenwan Automotive Index was stable, with the New Energy Vehicle Index underperforming by 2% and the Commercial Vehicle Index underperforming by 3% [1] Passenger Vehicle Market Data - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [2] - The cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles for the year reached 15.955 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [2] - In the same period, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 697,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10% and an 11% increase compared to the previous month, with a market penetration rate of 58.5% [2] - The cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles for the year reached 8.267 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 24% [2] Humanoid Robots in Industry - The 2025 Shanghai Industrial Expo showcased several humanoid robot manufacturers, including Fourier and key component suppliers like Hammernaut, Huan Dong Technology, and Xinuo Future [2] - Shanghai Electric has achieved high-precision research and development of intelligent robots through multi-industry collaboration [2] - Xinuo Future is recognized as a core component supplier in the humanoid robot sector, possessing a complete production line from mechanical processing to assembly, demonstrating self-research and production capabilities across the entire chain [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid iteration, with a positive outlook for companies that exhibit innovation and cost advantages [2]