国泰海通｜钢铁：需求边际上升，库存由升转降

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand is showing a marginal increase with a week-on-week rise in apparent consumption of five major steel products to 8.7406 million tons, up by 237,300 tons. Inventory levels have decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills is at 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates have decreased to 60.26%, down by 1.28 percentage points [1]. - The industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [3]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar has decreased to 216.2 CNY, down by 18.1 CNY, while hot-rolled coil profit has increased to 172.2 CNY, up by 18.4 CNY. The overall profitability rate for 247 steel companies is at 58.01%, a decline of 0.86% [2]. - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a more relaxed market for iron ore prices, which may alleviate cost pressures for the steel industry [2]. Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports have maintained year-on-year growth through August [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stability Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [3]. - The long-term trend in the steel industry is towards increased concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [3].