巴菲特会「卖飞」比亚迪么？

Core Viewpoint - Buffett's decision to sell BYD shares serves as a valuation warning but does not signify the end of BYD's long-term growth potential [3][37]. Group 1: Buffett's Selling Behavior - Buffett's exit from BYD after 17 years raises questions about his ability to "escape the peak" in investment [4]. - An analysis of 24 stocks sold by Berkshire Hathaway since 2006 shows that 13 of them experienced varying degrees of decline within a year after Buffett's exit [6]. - The most significant declines were seen in PetroChina, ConocoPhillips, and Wells Fargo, with drops of -70%, -30%, and -25% respectively [6][7]. Group 2: Long-term Performance of Sold Stocks - Over a longer period of five years, the number of stocks that continued to decline after Buffett's exit reduced to around six [8]. - For instance, Fannie Mae's stock fell over 100% before its bankruptcy, while UPS saw a decline of over 40% [8][9]. Group 3: BYD's Market Position and Challenges - BYD was a pioneer in the domestic electric vehicle market, benefiting from a significant first-mover advantage during the early stages of the industry [39]. - However, by 2022, the electric vehicle market shifted from growth to intense competition, leading to challenges for BYD, including sales pressure and profit margin compression due to price wars [44]. - The company's valuation had significantly deviated from historical averages, prompting Buffett's decision to sell [45]. Group 4: Future Outlook for BYD - Despite the short-term volatility following Buffett's exit, BYD's stock recorded a 28% gain since Buffett's initial sale in August 2022 [48]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a mature vehicle platform and self-research capabilities in core components, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook [51]. - Buffett's exit is viewed as a tactical adjustment rather than a complete rejection of BYD's future potential, indicating that the risks associated with the stock may have been largely mitigated [53].