数据点评 | 9月PMI：新动能接力旧动能（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth structure is shifting from traditional sectors to new momentum, with significant improvements in new momentum sectors [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends [1][7][73]. - The production index reached a six-month high of 51.9%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index rose only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [1][7][73]. - The demand structure shows that new export orders increased more significantly than domestic orders, with new export orders rising by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8% [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, indicating increased procurement activity due to stronger production [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - New momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, saw significant PMI improvements, with equipment manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% [2][19][74]. - The EPMI for emerging industries increased by 4.6 percentage points to 52.4%, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [2][19][74]. - In contrast, high-energy-consuming industries experienced a decline in PMI, dropping 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI remaining low at 49.3% and the service PMI declining by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, saw significant declines in business activity indices [2][24][74]. - Conversely, sectors like postal and financial services maintained high activity indices above 60% [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional sectors face downward pressure, new momentum is expected to provide stronger support for the economy, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of new growth policies [3][75]. - The implementation of new growth policies in key industries such as construction and steel is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with real estate and infrastructure downturns [3][75].