中国央行与欧洲央行货币供应与创造的比较分析｜政策与监管

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of comparing the monetary supply and creation between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide insights for China's monetary policy, especially in the context of the unique characteristics of the Chinese economy [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Banking Systems - Both China and the Eurozone have relatively high importance in their banking systems, making the comparison of their monetary policies meaningful [3]. - The analysis focuses on the ability to control interest rates by maintaining net liquidity close to the balance level of the banking system [3]. Group 2: Changes in China's Central Bank - The PBOC has undergone significant transformation, with foreign exchange reserves dropping from over 80% of total assets in 2014-2016 to below 50% by early 2025, indicating a qualitative change in operational strategies [5]. - During the global financial crisis, liquidity surplus reached nearly 8% of GDP, which gradually decreased from 2010 to 2021, attributed to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves [5]. Group 3: Financing Structure Comparison - China's financing structure is primarily based on indirect financing, mainly through credit loans, with deposit financial institutions holding over 60% of the financial sector's assets as of 2022, significantly higher than in developed countries [7]. - The broad money supply (M2) in China has been largely driven by asset expansion in indirect financing since 2022, with a relatively high growth rate due to market volatility [7][10]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and GDP Relationship - The role of money in the Chinese economy is significantly larger than in the Eurozone, with the money creation ratio to GDP increasing from slightly above 150% to nearly 220% from 2002 to 2024 [10][11]. - The growth rate of China's money supply has never been below 12%, with M2 growth nearing 30% during the global financial crisis [10]. Group 5: Central Bank's Role in Money Creation - The PBOC's share of money creation relative to GDP increased from 20% to nearly 50% after 2010, then steadily declined to below 15% by the end of the analysis period, indicating minimal inflationary pressure from the pandemic [13]. - In contrast, the ECB's influence on money creation was negligible before the global financial crisis, but it surged to over 25% of GDP during the pandemic, leading to significant inflation [14].