克而瑞地产研究·2025-09-30 10:54Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of China's top 100 real estate companies in terms of sales and market trends for the first nine months of 2025, indicating a mixed recovery in the housing market despite historical low levels of sales [16][18]. Sales Performance - In September 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 252.78 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 22.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total sales amount reached 2,323.66 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, although the decline has narrowed by 1.3 percentage points [18]. Market Trends - The new housing market saw a steady recovery in September 2025, with supply increasing by 55% month-on-month, reaching the second-highest level of the year. New home transactions rose by 18% month-on-month but fell by 5% year-on-year [16][29]. - In the first nine months, 30 monitored cities recorded a total transaction area of 88.33 million square meters, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 3% [3][29]. Company Rankings - The top three companies by sales turnover in September 2025 were Poly Developments (185.6 billion yuan), Greentown China (178.5 billion yuan), and China Overseas Land & Investment (162.4 billion yuan) [2][3]. - The sales threshold for the top 10 companies decreased by 2.3% year-on-year to 62.52 billion yuan, indicating a lower entry barrier compared to the previous year [20]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that new home transaction volumes may continue to hover at low levels in October 2025, with potential further increases in year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [30]. - The market is expected to experience continued differentiation among cities and projects, with core first- and second-tier cities maintaining higher transaction volumes due to stronger purchasing power [30].