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在猪周期里躲牛市?
虎嗅APP·2025-09-30 12:51

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the pork industry, highlighting that while major pork companies are reporting impressive profits, the capital market remains skeptical, leading to many pork stocks being undervalued or stagnant. The profits are primarily driven by cost reductions rather than price increases or expansion, indicating a lack of long-term growth potential [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major pork companies like Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1169.77%, while Wens Foodstuff achieved a net profit of 3.475 billion yuan, up 159.12% [4]. - Despite these profits, many pork stocks are trading at low levels, with some being labeled as "zombie stocks" that fail to capitalize on market uptrends [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The profits reported by these companies are attributed to the decline in prices of key raw materials like corn and soybean meal, along with improved production efficiency, rather than an increase in demand or prices [6]. - The industry is facing a significant oversupply issue, with the number of breeding sows at 40.42 million, exceeding the normal holding capacity by 3.6% as of July 2025 [7]. Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The Chinese government has mandated a reduction of 1 million breeding sows by January 2026 among the top 25 pork producers, aiming to address the oversupply issue [7][9]. - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questioned, as smaller producers may not comply, leading to a potential mismatch in supply reduction efforts [10][13]. Group 4: Financial Viability and Future Outlook - The article notes that the self-breeding model in the pork industry has been profitable since May 2024, but as of September 2025, it has started to incur losses, with an average loss of 24.44 yuan per pig [18]. - The average price of pork has dropped to approximately 12.6 yuan per kilogram, while the average cost of production is around 12.8 yuan per kilogram, indicating that further price declines could lead to cash flow losses and necessitate capacity reductions [18][20]. Group 5: Efficiency and Competitive Landscape - The industry's production efficiency has improved significantly, with the number of weaned piglets per breeding sow increasing by 36% from January 2021 to January 2025 [22]. - Despite a reduction in the number of breeding sows, the overall supply of pork may remain high due to increased efficiency, which could continue to suppress pork prices [20][24]. Group 6: Investment Considerations - The article suggests that investors should focus on three key dimensions when evaluating pork companies: total cost, growth rate, and market valuation [26]. - A table summarizing the 2026 output targets, growth rates, and market valuations of 16 listed pork companies is provided, indicating a diverse landscape where no single company presents a perfect investment opportunity [27].