数据点评 | 9月PMI：新动能接力旧动能（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The traditional sectors are experiencing weakened growth, while new momentum shows a significant recovery, necessitating attention to the effects of stable growth policies in key industries [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, aligning with seasonal expectations. The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7][73]. - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a slower recovery compared to previous years. The demand structure continues to show that external demand is outperforming internal demand, with new export orders rising more significantly than domestic orders [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, driven by stronger production, while the price indices for raw materials and factory output remained resilient [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - The PMI for new momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, showed significant improvement, with the equipment manufacturing PMI rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% and high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone at 51.9% [2][19][74]. - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI slightly recovering by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI dropped 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and cultural activities, experienced a significant decline in business activity indices, falling below critical levels [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional momentum faces downward pressure on both quantity and price, new momentum is accelerating its support for the economy. Continuous monitoring of the effects of new incremental policies is essential [3][75]. - The upcoming stable growth policies in key industries like construction materials and steel are expected to mitigate the risks associated with the downturn in infrastructure and real estate sectors [3][75].