投资中最被高估的三种能力

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pitfalls of conventional thinking and qualities such as insight, explanation, and persistence in the context of investing and entrepreneurship, highlighting how these traits can lead to significant losses in a volatile market environment [2][31]. Group 1: Insight - Insight is a highly valued quality in large companies, allowing individuals to identify overlooked opportunities and gain recognition [7]. - However, in investing and entrepreneurship, insight can be a double-edged sword, leading to overconfidence and eventual failure due to the "survivorship bias" [8][10]. - The article emphasizes that many perceived "blue oceans" are actually "dead seas" where previous entrepreneurs have failed, indicating that not all opportunities are viable [12]. Group 2: Explanation - In corporate environments, strong explanation skills are crucial for success, as they help in clarifying situations and decisions to various stakeholders [17]. - In investing, however, the reliance on explanations can lead to self-deception, where investors rationalize losses instead of acknowledging market realities [20]. - The article warns that a strong explanatory ability can suppress the perception of reality, causing investors to ignore adverse factors that may affect their investments [20]. Group 3: Persistence - Persistence is often overvalued in investing, as it can lead to catastrophic losses if not paired with high probability success and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances [25][26]. - Investors who are overly persistent may ignore critical changes in a company's fundamentals, mistaking market fluctuations as tests of their resolve [27]. - The article concludes that successful investing requires a balance between persistence and the willingness to adapt strategies based on new information, rather than a blind commitment to a single approach [30].